Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?


The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.

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New year, new plan!


2017 is here! It’s time to reflect on the past year and plan ahead for the future.What a roller coaster year 2016 has been! Ahhhh, the highs and lows of tournament poker life! From winning my first live tourney(no chop), to traveling all over the country to play tournaments, to getting my ass kicked at the World Series of Poker in Vegas, it has been one hell of a ride. I haven’t had any MAJOR scores this year but I would be crazy to be too bummed about it, as I’m so incredibly grateful for the opportunity to play this amazing game for a living. While I’m sure it’s not anything crazy for a lot of pros, I still have to recognize how lucky I truly am, I have been living the dream! I’ve traveled to more places, played in stakes both live in online that I never dreamed I would, I’ve sat at tables with some of my poker heroes and finally played my first World Series of Poker in Vegas. I’ve made my share of mistakes, blunders and missteps, but they have forced me to learn, and to continually better myself as a player. While all were not positive, every experience I’ve gotten this year will last a lifetime! I learned a lot last year, hopefully I can carry those lessons I’ve learned into the next year ahead and make 2017 the best year ever!I was unsure where to go with my plan for the future, but Intertops was supportive of all my ideas, and I think we have come up with a great plan! I could not be blessed with a better situation or working with a better company than Intertops Poker! I could not be more fortunate and grateful for the amazing opportunity they have given me and I plan to make 2017 great with them!I thought about following a few different tours, trying to decide what was the best value and at the same time, more entertainment for our followers. After a lot of back and forth, I decided I will attempt to hit at least one WSOP circuit a month, with it all leading back to what will be my second World Series of Poker in Vegas! Hopefully I’ll be able to play some other tournaments in between including going to Austria again this year with Intertops! I could not of had a better experience last year, going to both Seefeld and Velden, so I can’t wait for round two!! As far as the circuit goes, I’m going to go start off with the Choctaw in Durant, Oklahoma (nice and close to home), then hitting up the West Palm Beach Kennel club stop in Florida. Next, luckily enough for me, the WSOP is having a new stop this year, in Tulsa Oklahoma at the Hard Rock Cafe. It’s still going to require some more planning, being about five hours away, but overall much more practical for driving then some of the other stops. Then, in April, that much anticipated stop in Cherokee North Carolina, which is been the highlight of many of my friends WSOPs, including one who just final tabled the last stop for a huge score! I’ve heard many great things about this stop, so I’m very excited. After that, in May we will be at Harrah’s New Orleans stop which is also within driving distance or a quick flight for me from DFW. I’ve never been to the stop either but between friends that live out that way, and hearing other players talk about the juicy cash games that run there, I’m sure it will be a blast! So considering I’m not made of money and I want to be as smart as possible about bankroll management this year, my plan will be to play the kickout events for all the stops listed. They are $365 buy ins with most of them having very large guaranteed prize pools. I’ll try to get the most bang for my buck, and if I do well, consider playing the Main events the following weekend!So it will be Oklahoma, Florida, Oklahoma again, North Carolina, and then Louisiana before heading back out to the Mecca of Poker that is the WSOP in Vegas. On top of all this, I know I’ll be going to Seefeld Austria for the last week of February which will for sure be another amazing trip! Back to the place that started it all for me with Intertops and life as a full-time professional poker player! Hopefully, there will be other satellite wins again this year through Intertops as well. I’m sure everyone would love going back to one of their many exotic satellite destinations for more incredible experiences, as well as high-stakes poker tourneys! lolIf you want to get in on the fun, Intertops just started running satellites yesterday for as little as two bucks! It leads to a final, $109 buy in satellite tournament on January 22nd for a $4000 package! It’s a winner take all for a trip to Seefeld, Austria to play in this amazing spot with me in a $2200 main event! It also includes a five nights stay in an amazing bed-and-breakfast up the mountains of Austria and $500 in travel expenses! You can follow along with all the action at www.twitch.tv/2fit2fold or my fellow streamer and sponsored players at www.twitch.tv/chrisp200. The streams have been growing steadily and we have quite a few loyal followers so we just started a super fun free roll challenge! It’s Monday through Wednesday at 7:30 pm. You can check out the all the details at www.killedavariance.com.I hope you fall along on my action and shenanigans for the coming months, as Intertops Poker and myself have big things planned for the future! Be sure to stop in to the blog and to twitch to for all of the latest updates and promotions! PS: Read about Tim’s Aruba action or his previous article here!PPS: Want to know more about our current promotions?

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Learning from Phil Hellmuth Jr.

I was recently honored to host a live webinar with 13-time WSOP bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth Jr. While Phil is a bit of an enigma in the poker world because no one quite understands how he wins on a consistent basis in high stakes poker tournaments, I knew there were countless skills I could learn from him. When you have the opportunity to discuss poker strategy with one of the most successful poker players in the world, you listen!
Since the webinar, I have implemented numerous concepts we discussed, drastically increasing my profits at the table.
One of the most important concepts he discussed was the idea that if you have played poker for a long time and studied the game diligently, as I have, you should tend to trust your reads. Since our webinar, I have worked hard on my reading abilities and they seem to be paying off.
I recently played in a $13,000 high roller event in Barcelona. There was one player at the table who was obviously splashing around. Everyone was making a point to play pots with him. Even though he was clearly playing junky hands, he always had the nuts when his opponents decided to call his large postflop bets.
Eventually I raised with A-T from middle position, the splashy guy called in the small blind and the Big Blind also called. The flop came 4-4-3. The splashy guy made a bet and I decided to call. The turn was a J. He bet again and I called. The river was an 8 and he bet enough to put me all-in, which was around the size of the pot.
Seeing how he had only shown the nuts when he took overly aggressive lines in the past, this would normally be an easy fold. However, something did not feel right. I can’t quite quantify what it was, but he looked nervous. I thought he would play numerous busted draws in this manner. My main concern was that he could be bluffing with a hand such as 2-2 or A-Q, which would be a disaster for me.
However, I went with my read and called. He showed the 5-2 and I doubled up with my marginal A-high.
While this is certainly an extreme example, if I did not have the amazing learning experience with Phil, I would have folded. Instead, I won $13,000 in equity.
To get instant access to this enlightening learning experience with Phil Hellmuth Jr. where he discusses numerous other strategies he implements to constantly win poker tournaments, check out the webinar here: Learning from Phil Hellmuth Webinar

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Super Bowl Streaker Bet $50,000 on Himself but Bovada Won’t Pay Out


09:1116 FebOnline sportsbook Bovada likely won’t be paying out the largest supposedly winning wager on whether a streaker would disrupt the Super Bowl LV game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the site discovered the streaker was part of a group having placed a large bet on such an event occurring during the game.Yuri Andrade, the 31-year-old Florida man who briefly disrupted the game with his run in a pink leotard and black shorts, announced in an apperance on a Florida radio station Wild 94.1 talk show that he was part of a group that had bet $50,000 that a streaker would appear. Andrade told the show’s audience that his group had locked in the bet at +750, resulting in the high would-be payout.However, Bovada, a grey-market betting site offering services to many US states, quickly learned of Andrade’s admission. The site had already been aware of “suspicious activity” on the prop line, likely the overly large $50,000 wager. As a result, Bovada has already announced it will refund the wagers of all “no” bettors, while also screening for legitimacy all “yes” wagers made before officially grading them.The episode will likely do no publicity favors for Bovada, however, despite the site’s willingness to take a moderate financial hit. Bovada’s lines appear prominently throughout the US’s sports-betting world, on broadcasts and in live and online publications, and as a consequence the site remains under considerable pressure from the US’s growing licensed and regulated markets. At the very least, the event is likely to make Bovada reconsider offering prop bets of this nature, ones that have the potential to disrupt larger sporting events.“Our players have always trusted us to ensure the integrity of all props offered in our sportsbook,”Bovada stated. “We will continue to make sure that any publicity stunts or ill-intended behavior cannot adversely affect the outcome of a player’s wager.”It’s not the first time that streaking has figured into an online gambling story. Nearly 20 years ago, online casino site GoldenPalace.com garnered publicity by investing in all sorts of bizarre activities, including sponsoring serial streaker Mark Roberts’ dashes at events including Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2004. Roberts sported a temporary GoldenPalace.com tattoo during his runs, which were just a small part of the site’s bizarre guerilla marketing campaigns.Did you like this article?Tweet
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Paulis Plausinaitis leads GGPoker WSOPC main event final table


The GGPoker World Series of Poker Circuit event is down to its last nine players and there are some superstars waiting to battle at the felt for the famed Circuit Ring and perhaps more importantly, the $1,236,361 top prize.With 6,395 entries, the $1,700 buy-in was stumped up by a huge number of players and that meant the $10 million guarantee was exceeded to an eventual total prizepool of $10,327,925.With 700 players paid, Day 2 started with 1,112 players, meaning the bubble had not yet burst, and play might have been expected to slow down a little. With the two final turbo Day 1 flights running into that Day 2, however, play carried on at a lick of pace, with an orbit at each of the remaining tables producing over 100 bust-outs.There were some big names who ran close to the money but missed out on profit, such as Christian Rudolph, Juan Pardo, Kenny Hallaert, David Yan, GGPoker ambassador Felipe Ramos and Fedor Holz, with the min-cash of $4,107 eluding them all.Others snuck into the money places, with players such as Brunno Botteon, Bertrand ‘ElkY’ Grospellier, Mohsin Charania, Jack Salter, Noah Boeken, Mark Radoja, Laurynas Levinskas and former WSOP Main Event winner Ryan Riess all cashing but failing to make the business end of the tournament. Inside the top 100 places, there were more hard luck stories for big names in the game, with the latest big GGPoker WSOPC winner Niklas Astedt busting, and he was joined on the rail by players such as Ronny Kaiser, Michael Addamo and Mike ‘SirWatts’ Watson to name just three.Later still, others such as Danny Tang, Simon Mattsson and Philippe D’Auteuil all departed, and it was around this time that a certain WSOP bracelet winner began to truly thrive. Joseph Cheong was nestling at the top of the leaderboard and starting to make his quality count.Back in 2010, this epic hand at the World Series of Poker saw Joseph Cheong’s aces lose to 7-5 after all the chips went into the middle on a 5-6-6 flop.Cheong managed to stay at the higher reaches of the leaderboard late in the day and will go into play in the final with 63 big blinds, holding 50.7 million chips. Only two players have more chips than Cheong, with the chip leader heading into the final being Macau-based Lithuanian Paulis Plausinaitis (76 million/95 big blinds) and second-placed Belarussian Artem Prostak (54 million/68 big blinds) also ahead of Cheong’s stack.Those three are not the only big players awaiting in what is sure to be a stacked final table when it takes place on Saturday 16th January. Finnish poker pro Joni Jouhkimainen with go into battle with only 13.8 million chips (17 big blinds) but will have nothing to lose by going on the attack. Romanian Alexandru Papazian has 25.1 million chips (31 big blinds) and will be an even bigger threat to the established players at the table in terms of chips.The action is sure to be superb when the final takes place, with kick-off time on the 16th January (this coming Saturday) being at 6.30pm UTC and broadcast on a live delay on the GGPoker Twitch channel.With blinds meaning the average stack is just over 44 big blinds, only four players have that, so you’ll want to tune in for kick-off as those below the line will need to make moves – and quick.GGPoker WSOPC Main Event Final Table Chipcounts:PositionPlayerCountryChipsBig Blinds1Paulis PlausinaitisLithuania76,004,22495 2Artem ProstakBelarus54,179,29168 3Joseph CheongUnited States50,700,58263 4‘likeboy’China47,269,12959 5Alexandru PapazianRomania25,140,09131 6‘turkey1’China21,939,16027 7‘BetAddict’Israel20,263,05825 8Joni JouhkimainenFinland13,814,88217 9‘DaiMing141319’China8,992,30511 

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หากคุณชอบเล่นโป๊กเกอร์การเล่นเกมนี้ดูเหมือนความฝันที่เป็นจริง ทำในสิ่งที่คุณชอบและจะไม่รู้สึกว่าทำงาน อย่างไรก็ตามก่อนที่คุณจะเข้าสู่ทุกสิ่งคุณควรตระหนักถึงประโยชน์และกฎเกณฑ์ทั้งหมดที่มาพร้อมกับการเล่นโป๊กเกอร์เพื่อการดำรงชีวิตของคุณ หากคุณกำลังพิจารณาที่จะจริงจังกับอาชีพโป๊กเกอร์ที่มีศักยภาพของคุณต่อไปนี้เป็นข้อดีและข้อเสียที่โดดเด่นที่สุดของการเป็นผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์มืออาชีพ ประโยชน์ของการเล่นโป๊กเกอร์เพื่อหาเลี้ยงชีพเป็นเจ้าของเวลาของคุณเองหากคุณเล่นโป๊กเกอร์เพื่อหาเลี้ยงชีพคุณกำลังเลือกเวลาทำงานได้อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ การเป็นเจ้านายตัวเองโดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งในเส้นทางอาชีพเช่นนี้หมายความว่าคุณต้องทำงานกะกลางคืนเพื่อทำงานในเวลาของคุณเองและทำงานที่เป็นอิสระในแต่ละวันให้ดีที่สุดหรือมีปัญหาในการตื่นนอนทุกเช้าหากคุณไปตามถนนสายนี้ ปัญหา. “สำนักงาน” ของคุณคือโต๊ะโป๊กเกอร์ออนไลน์และการแข่งขันโป๊กเกอร์สดที่คุณเลือกเข้าร่วมเพียงจำไว้ว่าคุณต้องรักษาระเบียบวินัยที่ดีเยี่ยมในงานใด ๆ ที่คุณไม่สูญเสียความยืดหยุ่นและอิสระในการทำงานของคุณ ไม่มีเพดานการจ่ายเงินผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์ส่วนใหญ่ต้องการเป็นมืออาชีพเหตุผลที่ใหญ่ที่สุดคือมีผลกำไรไม่ จำกัด สำหรับผู้ที่กล้าอ้างสิทธิ์ แม้ว่าเงินจะไม่ใช่แรงบันดาลใจหลักของคุณ แต่ก็ไม่ยากที่จะนึกถึงรางวัลนับล้านในการแข่งขันโป๊กเกอร์ที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก แม้ว่าคุณจะเพิ่งเริ่มเล่นออนไลน์ที่เว็บไซต์ Real Money Poker แต่ก็ยังมีตัวเลือกมากมายรวมถึงรางวัลที่กว้างกว่าที่คนทำงานส่วนใหญ่จะได้รับจากงานประจำวัน นอกจากนี้ส่วนที่ดีที่สุดคือไม่มีเพดานเงินเดือนว่าคุณสามารถนำกลับบ้านได้เท่าไรในแต่ละเดือน ข้อดีอีกอย่างของการเล่นโป๊กเกอร์เพื่อใช้ชีวิตและท่องเที่ยวไปทุกที่ในโลกก็คือคุณสามารถรู้สึกเหมือนอยู่บ้านได้ตลอดเวลาระหว่างเดินทางไปทำงานและรับเงินในกระบวนการ หากคุณวางแผนที่จะเป็นผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์แบบเต็มเวลาคุณสามารถหวังว่าจะได้ไปเมืองที่ใหญ่ที่สุดและน่าสนใจที่สุดในโลกบ่อยๆ จากลาสเวกัสและลอนดอนไปยังบาร์เซโลนาและโมนาโกคุณสามารถสร้างตารางเวลาของคุณเองได้ตามที่ต้องการ ยิ่งไปกว่านั้นในฐานะผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์มืออาชีพคุณมีอิสระไม่ จำกัด ในการเลือกสถานที่ที่คุณต้องการตั้งถิ่นฐาน หากคุณต้องการสร้างบ้านในสถานที่ที่มีแสงแดดและอบอุ่นคุณสามารถเลือกจุดหมายปลายทางของแมลงยอดนิยมเช่น Caribbean Select ซึ่งจะช่วยให้คุณเพลิดเพลินไปกับฤดูร้อนที่ไม่มีที่สิ้นสุดในขณะที่ยังอยู่ใกล้กับการแข่งขันโป๊กเกอร์ที่ได้รับความนิยมและได้รับรางวัลมากที่สุด ข้อเสียของการเล่นแมลงเพื่อเอาตัวรอดจากรายได้ที่รับประกันผลประโยชน์ที่สำคัญที่สุดของงานประจำวันคือคุณรู้ว่าคุณมีรายได้เท่าไรในแต่ละเดือน เมื่อคุณเปลี่ยนงานประจำวันไปเป็นอาชีพโป๊กเกอร์แบบมืออาชีพตาข่ายนิรภัยนี้จะหายไป แม้ว่าจะเป็นเรื่องจริงที่คุณจะสามารถชนะเงินได้มากที่สุด แต่ก็ไม่มีการบอกว่าจะมาเมื่อไหร่หรือจะมาเมื่อใด ความผันผวนของรายได้เป็นการแลกเปลี่ยนที่พบบ่อยในอาชีพที่สูงขึ้นซึ่งให้เพดานกำไรที่สูงขึ้น หากคุณต้องการเล่นอย่างปลอดภัยและไม่เสี่ยงต่อการมียอดคงเหลือติดลบเป็นเวลาหลายสัปดาห์หรือหลายเดือนการประกอบอาชีพที่ Texas Hold’em อาจไม่ใช่วิธีที่ดีที่สุด ที่กล่าวว่าหากคุณเต็มใจที่จะรับความผันผวนและมีความคิดที่จะรับมือกับความกดดันของรายได้ที่ผันผวนคุณสามารถเปลี่ยนปัญหานี้ให้เป็นประโยชน์ได้ เส้นทางสู่ความสำเร็จอาจทำให้คู่ต่อสู้ของเขารู้สึกกังวลกับของเล่น Daniel Negrenu ที่ดูเหมือนจะไม่ต้องใช้ความพยายามเลย อย่างไรก็ตามพวกเราส่วนใหญ่ลืมไปว่าเราเฝ้าดูผลลัพธ์สุดท้ายของการศึกษาจิตวิทยาของเกมและคู่แข่งมาหลายปีแล้ว ผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์มืออาชีพทุกคนประสบความสำเร็จในระดับสูงและประสบการณ์ที่ต่ำลงตลอดการเดินทางอันยาวนาน คิดว่ามันไม่เคยขี่ทางเรียบ ต้องมีความมั่นใจ แต่คุณต้องทำงานอย่างสม่ำเสมอพร้อมกับทักษะของคุณเพื่อสำรองข้อมูล แน่นอนว่าผู้เล่นบางคนประสบความสำเร็จอย่างมากในช่วงสองสามปีแรกของการเล่นเกม แต่สิ่งเหล่านี้เป็นของต่างประเทศหากคุณตั้งเป้าที่จะสร้างอาชีพตลอดชีวิตในโป๊กเกอร์คุณต้องอดทนและจำไว้เสมอว่าคุณมีมันสำหรับ อีกนานในที่สุดก็จะถูกจับได้ คุณต้องมีงบประมาณที่มั่นคงในการเริ่มต้นแม้ว่าโป๊กเกอร์จะให้โอกาสคุณในการชนะเงินเป็นจำนวนมาก แต่คุณต้องมีเงินทุนเริ่มต้นเพียงพอก่อนที่จะพิจารณาให้ความสนใจกับเกมทั้งหมด การขาดเงินเป็นหนึ่งในสาเหตุหลักที่ทำให้ผู้เล่นส่วนใหญ่ไม่มุ่งมั่นที่จะเล่นโป๊กเกอร์อย่างมืออาชีพ สำหรับผู้เล่นหลายคนอาจใช้เวลาสองสามปีเพื่อให้พวกเขาได้รับชัยชนะอย่างสม่ำเสมอในโป๊กเกอร์ หากคุณไม่มีเงินทุนหรือมีงานประจำวันในการเริ่มต้นเพื่อชดเชยการสูญเสียโป๊กเกอร์ของคุณคุณสามารถเบื่อหน่ายกับความเครียดได้อย่างรวดเร็ว ไม่รับประกันความสำเร็จและสิ่งสำคัญคือต้องจำไว้ว่าคุณควรรับความเสี่ยงที่จะไม่สูญเสียเงินและต้องเรียนรู้ที่จะจัดการแบ๊งค์ที่ดี! คุณพร้อมที่จะเป็นนักโป๊กเกอร์มืออาชีพแล้วหรือยัง? ความจริงที่ยากก็คือไม่ใช่ทุกคนที่จะต้องเป็นนักโป๊กเกอร์ระดับโลก อย่างไรก็ตามด้วยความอดทนและการทำงานที่เพียงพอคุณสามารถสร้างรายได้จากการเล่นโป๊กเกอร์ได้อย่างยอดเยี่ยม เนื่องจากในท้ายที่สุดแล้วมันจะไปได้ไกลสำหรับมืออาชีพและผู้เล่นส่วนใหญ่ที่มุ่งมั่นศึกษาและเรียนรู้เกมอย่างแท้จริงก็สามารถประสบความสำเร็จได้ หากคุณหลงใหลในโป๊กเกอร์และพร้อมที่จะทุ่มเทพลังของคุณลงไปไม่มีอะไรหยุดคุณจากการสร้างอาชีพได้ หากต้องการความช่วยเหลือในการเดินทางโปรดดูเว็บไซต์ฝึกอบรมแมลงที่ดีที่สุดเพราะคุณจะพบแหล่งข้อมูลดีๆมากมายที่นี่

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Adjusting to world-class players

This is my table from a recent $25,000 buy-in event.
Poker tournaments are interesting, especially compared to cash games, because the skill level of your opponents can vary wildly. While there will be winners and losers in a $1/$2 cash game, most of the players simply do not play too well because if they did, they would be playing for higher stakes. In tournaments, especially in major events where many players satellite in, you could be playing with a total amateur who got lucky to win his seat for a small amount of money or a high stakes professional who travels the world and buys in directly to all of the premier events. In fact, when you are playing the “smaller” main events, such as typical $3,500 WPT or $1,500 WSOP events, those could be considered “small stakes” to some of the pros who play $10,000 buy-in and larger events on a regular basis.
This creates an interesting dynamic because you should employ a drastically different strategy when playing against the total amateur compared to the pro. Since most of what I discuss is based on blatantly exploiting my opponent, I thought it would be helpful to use this blog post to share my thoughts about how to play against someone you cannot blatantly exploit. I do not mean for this blog post to be a comprehensive guide for beating world-class players. I simply want to let you know a few of the adjustments I make while playing against world-class competition that you can quickly and easily integrate into your strategy, allowing you to be competitive.
Where does the profit come from?
I have recently been playing primarily $5,000 and larger buy-in events because I have been making a point to travel to the European Poker Tour stops. It simply does not make sense to spend a bunch of time and money for me to travel to a $3,500 buy-in event in America. Because of this, I have been playing in more high stakes tournaments where very few players satellite in, such as the typical high roller events in the EPTs. This has given me the opportunity to hone my skills against some of the best players in the world when there are not many weak players at the table.
I want to make it perfectly clear that when you are at the table with one or two world-class pros and a bunch of amateurs, you should generally make a point to play very few pots with the pros and lots of pots with the amateurs. You make money in poker by taking advantage of your opponents’ mistakes. If your opponents do not make many mistakes, you will not make much money. Since amateurs make many more mistakes than professionals, you want to play most of your pots with the amateurs. That being said, you should not play like a super nit versus the pros. Simply play a fundamentally sound strategy that makes it difficult for you to get exploited.
I made this 1,000,000 chip stack in a $5,000 buy-in event!
When you are playing at a table full of pros and only one or two amateurs, you simply must get involved with the other pros because if you don’t, you will eventually blind off. In general, there is nothing wrong with playing a relatively tight, aggressive style where you pick your bluff spots intelligently. I think one of the major mistakes amateurs make when playing against pros is that they rarely bluff. When they do, it is often so obvious that the pros can make somewhat easy calls with a wide range. If you only apply pressure when you have a premium hand, you will blind off because the pros will not give you action.
Changing gears
If you happen to be implementing a tight strategy and you have not played many hands in the recent past, do not be afraid to get a bit out of line, especially by reraising before the flop and then continuation betting the flop for about the same amount as your preflop reraise. While this play is quite simple, it is super-effective if you have a tight image. Always be aware of your image and use it to your advantage.
If you happen to be at a table where everyone is playing a tight, aggressive strategy, if you realize they are playing too tightly, especially when the stacks are around 30 – 50 big blinds deep, an effective play is to raise when the action folds to you, even from early position, with an overly wide range. If your opponents will only call or reraise with premium hands, you will find that you will often steal the blinds or win the pot after the flop frequently enough to justify a steal attempt. Of course, once your opponents realize you are raising with a wide range, assuming they become willing to play back at you, you should revert to a tight, aggressive strategy. Old school players refer to this as “changing gears”. I call it “playing intelligently”.
Stealing the blinds
Speaking of preflop stealing, you will notice that in high stakes tournaments the “standard” raise size is venturing higher. In the past, people folded from the big blind way too often so strong players started min-raising preflop in order to be able to steal the blinds with a wider range with less risk. This play was quite effective for a few years, but eventually the best players figured out that they should be defending their big blind with a wide range. If you can put in one more big blind before the flop and perhaps two more big blinds on the flop and see a showdown, which is often against the case against someone who raises with a wide range, continuation bets with a wide range, then plays straightforwardly on the turn and river, you should call the preflop min-raise with almost any two cards.
To counteract this adjustment by the best players, you have two options. You can either fire more turn and river bluffs, which gets quite risky, or you can raise larger before the flop. The problem with firing more turn and river bluffs is that your strong opponents will figure this out and start calling down with a wider range. It should be clear that very few good players check-raise the flop when they defend the blind because they want to keep their check-calling range strong so that you cannot happily fire three bluffs. While amateurs make the mistake of effectively turning their hand face-up by check-raising, pros will keep you guessing. Of course, if your opponent will call the flop with his marginal hands that he will fold by the river when faced with intense aggression, you should happily fire lots of bluffs. However, if your opponent may or may not call you down because they do not turn their hand face-up when they have premium hands, bluffing becomes much less palatable.
Instead, you can simply raise a bit larger before the flop. With deep stacks of 50 big blinds or more, it is quite common to see the best players raising to 3 big blinds before the flop. As the stacks start to shrink, their bet sizes start to decrease, but not too much. With 35 big blind stacks, they will still raise to around 2.7 big blinds or so.
I have been experimenting with raising to 2 big blinds when a weak player is in the big blind and 2.7 – 3 big blinds when a strong player is in the big blind. I have been making this play with my entire range so I am not easily exploitable. It has been quite effective so far because it allows me to play more pots with amateurs and fewer pots with the pros.
River betting
One other adjustment I want to discuss is how to bet on the river versus an amateur compared to a pro. Against an amateur, I will often bet an amount that I think will induce the result I want. For example, if I think my opponent is a mediocre player who will assume a small bet is for value, I will bet small as a bluff. If I think my opponent will always call a small bet with a wide range because of his pot odds, I will bet small with my value hands and large with my bluffs. This strategy does not work too well against pros because you will often not be able to out-think them.
Instead, you should choose bet sizes based on the percentage of the time that you will be bluffing versus value betting with your entire range. For example, if you know that in a specific river spot you will have 20% bluffs and 80% value bets (this assumes that your value hands win every time when you get called), you should make a bet that gives your opponent 4:1 pot odds, which would be 33% of the size of the pot, because that way, he cannot make a profit by either calling or folding. You will often see pros overbetting the pot, perhaps betting two times the size of the pot, giving their opponent 3:2, when they have around 40% bluffs in their range.
Of course, this assumes you know how to think about your actual range in a spot. Most amateurs are much too concerned with their own hand. Against pros, you must realize that you are playing your range against their range, not your hand against their hand.  Unfortunately, poker is not quite this simple because you rarely know if you are purely value betting or bluffing.  As long as you are at least thinking about ranges, you will be able to tailor your bet sizes to specific situations when playing against strong pros instead of simply betting some fixed percent of the pot every time.
That being said, if you do want to bet the same percent of the pot every time, the proper adjustment is to set up your range such that you have the correct proportion of bluffs compared to value bets. For example, if you always want to bet 64% of the size of the pot on the river, you should have 28% bluffs in your range. If you can figure out how to construct your range such that you have exactly 28% bluffs every time, this will work, but you will find that it is often easier to figure out what percentage of your range is bluffs and then adjust your bet size accordingly.
As a quick example, let’s suppose you find yourself on the river after you raised preflop from middle position and the Big Blind, a world-class pro, called. You then bet on both the flop and turn on an Ah-7h-5s-3s board and your opponent called. The river is the (Ah-7h-5s-3s)-Kd.
You certainly want to value bet with your best hands, so you must also figure out which hands to bluff with in order to remain balanced. Perhaps you know that your value betting range is all hands A-Q and better. Let’s also assume that you can’t have K-K because you probably would not have bet the turn with that. You also cannot have A-7o, A-5o, and A-3o because you would not have raised with those from middle position. This leaves you with a value range of this:

Notice that this is 68 combinations of hands. Let’s assume that you want to bluff with all of your busted flush draws. There are 14 combinations of busted flush draws that you could conceivably have. I am going to assume that you will bet with the busted K high flush draws that improved to middle pair as a bluff, which may or may not be a good play.

Since you have a total of 82 total combinations of hands (68 value hands and 14 bluffs) you should bet an amount that gives your opponent 68:14 pot odds, which would be 26% of the size of the pot. Of course, if you want to bet larger, you have to find more hands to bluff with. If you want to bet smaller, you should bluff with fewer of your missed flush draws (the ones with a pair of K’s in this example) or add in a wider range of value hands, assuming your opponent will call with worse made hands.
It is worth reiterating that real-world play is not this simple because you will occasionally value bet and get called by a better hand. You will also rarely know every aspect of your opponent’s strategy. The main takeaway should be that it is important to get out of the habit of blindly betting some percentage of the size of the pot on any betting round simply because that is what you think you are supposed to do. Always make a point to figure out why you make each of your actions.
While this strategy works well against the best pros, it is not a good idea against players who will simply never get to the river with a made hand worse than an A. While the best pros are thinking in terms of range versus range, the vast majority of players, most pros included, simply look at their hand and see if it is near the top of their range and then act accordingly. In the hand above, suppose you know that your opponent would almost always check-raise the flop with a flush draw, meaning that once he gets to the river, he has only top pair. If you know he will never fold his top pair to any reasonable bet, you should bet an amount that your opponent will call when you have a hand that is better than his calling range, which will most likely be around A-T or better. If instead you know that he will call up to a 60% pot bet but fold to larger bet sizes, bet 61% with your bluffs and 60% with your value hands. Of course, this again assumes we know a decent amount about our opponent, which enables us to play in an exploitative manner.
I hope this blog post has enlightened you a bit about how world-class pros play against each other. The deeper you think about poker, the better decisions you will make. To get started with this process, always make a point to think about your opponent’s range, your actual range, and what your opponent thinks about your range.
If you enjoyed this blog post, please share it with your friends! Also be sure to follow me at twitch.tv/jonathanlittle to watch me play live in real time for free. You can sign up for my PokerStars Home Game using #1976954 and Password: playpoker. My PokerStars Home Game will be on Tuesday, February 10, 2015 at 5pm EST. The Home Game is not for real money, but I will give away prizes. That way, everyone can play (even Americans!) I will stream the tournament on Twitch so everyone can watch. I hope you will join me on the live stream at twitch.tv/jonathanlittle. Thank you for reading.
 

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Sports gambling continues to be a huge success in Indiana


Hoosiers love their basketball. Ask anyone in Indiana and they’ll tell you that basketball isn’t just a sport; it’s a religion. The Indiana University Hoosiers’ basketball program has always been one of the best in the U.S. and the NCAA Hall of Champions is located in Indianapolis as a testament to the state’s attraction to basketball. On the NBA level, the Indiana Pacers have a massive following across the state, and all the attention given to hoops is paying off in a big way. Indiana continues to set new records with its sports gambling market, most of which is coming from basketball.In February of last year, the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) reported a handle of $187 million, a 10% increase from January. That wasn’t surprising, given the NFL Super Bowl action; however, assuming the money went to football would be wrong. The Big Game received $11.6 million in bets, while college and pro basketball accounted for over $90 million. Indiana continued to raise the bar on the sports gambling industry when the state’s sportsbooks recorded $251.4 million in November of last year, a $20-million increase over the prior month’s action. Much of that was destined for football as the NFL and college games were heating up, but, if there was any doubt of the importance of basketball in Indiana, the most recent numbers will push all of it aside. The IGC just released the latest figures on sports gambling and January was another record-setting month, the fifth consecutive month of breaking records. $348.2 million was wagered in the state last month, an increase of 11.2% over December and more than 100% over January 2020. Of that amount, $133.2 million went to hoops, making it the most money ever spent on one sport in the state. Football only got $77.6 million of the action. That’s not only good news for sportsbooks operating in the state, but it’s good news for the state’s budget, as well. With a tax of 9.5%, January gave Indiana’s government almost $2.8 million in tax revenue and, over the past 12 months, the state has received over $20 million. That’s not too bad for a local industry that has only been around since September 2019. Indiana can thank its neighbors for some of its additional wealth. Kentucky and Ohio don’t yet have sports gambling, although legislation is in the works, so gamblers in both of the states often hop over the border to place their bets. Illinois has a robust sports gambling market and is ranked fourth in terms of handle among legal states, but it doesn’t allow gambling on in-state college games. As a result, it loses some of the potential action it could be receiving and which might allow it to brag as being first or second in the sports gambling rankings. 

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Universal Entertainment in the market for a SPAC for Okada Manila


Almost three years ago, Universal Entertainment Group had a dream. It wanted to see Okada Manila, owned by subsidiary Tiger Resort, Leisure and Entertainment, listed on a stock exchange somewhere. Things didn’t go as planned initially, but it’s time for the pieces to be put in place, and Universal is going to make another run. This time, it wants help from a special acquisition company (SPAC) in the U.S. so it can fulfill its dream. Given the rise in popularity of SPACs in the gaming industry lately, Universal probably won’t have too much difficulty finding a partner, as long as its sordid past can be kept behind it.Universal wants a SPAC, also often called a blank-check company, willing to take a chance on helping Okada Manila become a publicly-traded company in the U.S. It hopes to land a spot on either the NASDAQ or the NYSE, and will take whatever it can get. The resort’s continued cost-saving efforts to combat COVID-19 have reportedly paid off, and Universal is convinced that the timing is perfect for a public launch. In a letter sent to investors last week about the search for a SPAC, Universal asserted, “In view of this situation, [and] having positioned its IR Business as the core business of the Company Group, the Company recently arrived at the decision to pursue a detailed examination of the listing of that business on either the U.S. NASDAQ Stock Exchange or the New York Stock Exchange with the aim of realizing the further expansion of that business and greater corporate group value.”2020 saw a lot of interest being given to SPAC deals, and that was just the beginning. 244 blank check companies connected with entities looking for a way to go public, ultimately attracting $78.2 billion through initial public offerings (IPO). However, 2021 is on par to see even greater activity, with 134 SPACs having attracted $39 billion from the start of the year until last Friday.Universal is reportedly already working on deals to finalize the value of Okada Manila and attract more interest. It added, “The Company has already executed advisory agreements with multiple financial advisory firms in Japan and the U.S. in order to prepare for the listing of its IR Business … and is currently engaged in the selection of a SPAC, the investigation of aspects involving the law and tax systems, the revision of the capital structure of the Company Group as a whole, with the aim of listing the business sometime in fiscal 2021.”

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GGPoker launch Flip & Go tournaments


Flip your way into the money right away with a new format from GGPoker for people who just want to play the end game.

Another new poker tournament format with the recreational player in mind has just launched at GGPoker.
Flip & Go tournaments promise to get you straight to the money stages of the tournament. The tournament begins with everybody being forced all-in on the first table until one player remains. Once every table is complete the tournament slows down and becomes a normal MTT after the bubble has burst. 
It’s not a complete gamble at the first table. Players will be dealt three cards instead of two and discard one before going all-in, so you have a chance to pick the hand that plays the best multi-way. 
Players who get dealt a strong three card starting hand preflop and go on to win the flip will see their stack increased. x1 if they get a straight, x2 if they get a flush, x3 if they get dealt trips and x4 if they get a straight flush. 

Discard one card in the Flip & Go stage

You can also buy a bigger stack in the flip stage, up to x10 your starting stack. So in a $5 MTT you can pay as much as $50 to get a x10 bigger stack, meaning you have a better chance if surviving the flip stage. It also means that the money stage of the tournament begins with different stacks in play. 

This format could prove popular with recreational players and professionals alike. Casual players don’t have to play all night only to miss the money. Serious players already like to late register and could easily justify these tournaments if the early gamble they go through means they get to play against recreational players in the money stages. PokerStars have previously tried something similar called Bubble Rush where the fast structured tournament slows down after the bubble bursts. 
Will you play this format? Let us know in the comments:

Barry Carter
Barry Carter is the editor of PokerStrategy.com and the co-author of The Mental Game of Poker 1 & 2, Poker Satellite Strategy and PKO Poker Strategy

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