The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.
pros of becoming a professional poker player
Being a professional poker player is a daring as well as exciting decision. If you’re successful at the game and want to quit your day job to become a poker pro, it’s an enticing opportunity. However, be warned: Poker rules are difficult to work, that isn’t for everyone. If you consider taking a risk to become a professional poker player, you should please ensure that it is an educated choice.
Here are some pros of becoming a professional poker player that might encourage you to take the next step!
Professionally Pursuing What You Love
One of the most prevalent desires in the world is to do something that you love professionally. For anyone in the poker community saying that there’s profit in this, they’re certainly not doing it only for the money. They love the game and have passion for it. For those who don’t have that, must understand that it is a skill game and requires practice to get better. This is what encourages them to put in the research time required to excel and achieve success through the downtrends.
Self Determination And Versatility
Poker players set their own schedules which is a great thing for any professional in any field of work or sport. To stave off poker exhaustion and keep you going, getting this independence will go a long time away. Also, you’ll only be accessible to yourself. Versatility is something that is quite limited in a number of professions nowadays and there’s nothing quite like poker tournaments when it comes to versatility. That’s not to suggest, of course, that it’ll be straightforward. The assumption is that when you do so, no-one will be blowing down your neck.
Earning Big Money
There is still a lot of profit to be gained by playing online poker if you can achieve a high level of experience. In terms of rake and playing rewards, there have been a few improvements in the market in recent years that have limited online poker’s profitability, but it is still possible to obtain a decent income playing the game. Getting in and getting out of micro stakes is one of the greatest obstacles facing emerging online pros these days. In present-day games, the high rake and low rakeback eat away at the winnings of a micro stakes player, making it difficult for them to achieve a good score overall.
On the other hand, live poker has been and is likely still a highly lucrative enterprise for professional players. The live player average is much lower than the online player estimate. This may be because, in casinos, live poker is practiced and thus encourages individuals who play poker to bargain instead of because they are successful at it. Or it could be because of live poker’s social aspect. It’s a mix of both, perhaps.
For more interesting articles about poker or poker news, keep reading PokerShots!
It may not have originated in Ireland, but the phrase “the luck of the Irish” rings loudly in the country. According to The Irish Post, more money is spent, per capita, on gambling in Ireland than in almost all other countries around the world. Only in two countries – Australia and Singapore – is more spent hitting the slots and the tables than in Ireland.The media outlet doesn’t source its data, but indicates that the Irish love online gambling more than any other form. Online gambling spend is 60%, greatly superior to other forms gambling and sports gambling, which only accounts for 15% of the money. The lottery receives a 10% cut, the same amount given to gambling machines and slots. Casinos, of which Ireland has around 20, pick up 5% of the action.While Australia and Singapore may see more gambling spend per capita, Ireland is the hands-down winner in online gaming spend, with The Irish Post asserting, “Ireland takes the lead globally when it comes to online gambling.” It adds, “With almost 3 billion American dollars spent on gambling and betting every year, that means that each man, woman, and child in Ireland are spending roughly 500 [euros] ($607) annually on this type of entertainment.”The media outlet further indicates that online gambling is most popular in Ireland because the segment is more regulated. It cites “outdated laws” that some casinos are exploiting to attract attention, but the transparency and accountability afforded gamblers by online operators give them an edge. The Irish Post explains that, according to reports, many Irish would prefer to gamble in a British casino than in a domestic one, possibly as a result of the outdated laws.Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Irish loved to gamble online and the segment increased about 15% each year. Last year, with the coronavirus in full swing, the numbers jumped substantially and, with the introduction of live online casino games and live sports gambling, the online segment has skyrocketed in popularity. Online gambling is inarguably the future, looking down the road 20 to 30 years, but it’s never too early for casino operators to start preparing.Surprisingly, the U.S. ranks fifth in terms of per-capita gambling spend, even less than Finland. However, with a population of over 330 million, it’s the largest market available. $120 billion was spent on gambling in the country in 2019, while the Irish spent $2.7 billion through its population of less than five million.
My Home game is currently on hold and games are not running. If there is enough demand, I will re-start the home game in the future.
*****Sign up info is no longer active*****
PokerStars Home Game:
Club ID: 1976954
Invitation Code: playpoker
These prizes are awarded each week to the top three finishers of my home game tournament.
This is important!!! If you win one of the prizes, you must email email@example.com your full name, twitch name, pokerstars name, and email address to claim your prize.
5 Reward Stars for my video training products
3 Reward Stars for my video training products
1 Reward Star for my video training products
Poker Coaching Account
In order to redeem your rewards, a PokerCoaching.com account is required. If you do not have an account, sign up for a FREE Poker Coaching account using the link below.
How to Redeem Your Rewards
Click the video below for instructions on how to redeem your rewards.
How to sign up:
You can NOT sign up through PokerStars New Jersey, only the global clients PokerStars.net and PokerStars.com.
To sign up for the PokerStars home game, simply download PokerStars and then navigate to the Home Game tab.
Click “Join a Poker Club”.
Club ID: 1976954
Invitation Code: playpoker
I then have to manually accept you, which may take me up to 24 hours. Once I have accepted you, be sure to log back into PokerStars and register for the tournament. You will see JonathanLittlePoker under your list of poker clubs.
Then click on JonathanLittlePoker, click on Schedule, then you will see the upcoming tournaments.
Simply register for the tournaments you want to play and you will be all set.
Log into PokerStars prior to the tournament and the table should automatically pop up once the tournament begins. I am looking forward to playing with you. Please please please share this post with your friends. I want this league to be a huge success so I can continue running it. Thank you and good luck!
This game was initially run as a league, with Kuno2001 claiming the title as well as the $1,500 grand prize. I will start the league back up again sometime after the WSOP, assuming there is enough interest.
HUGE congrats to Biszibosz for winning $1,000 plus lots of additional prizes in Season 2. Congrats to Qtunneler for taking 2nd for $500 plus lots of prizes.
I was honored to have a coaching session with the first and second place players from Season 1 of the league. Here I am giving them their coaching sessions live in Las Vegas!
***For those interested, here is how the PokerStars point structure works:
The exact formula for how Home Game statistics are calculated is based upon these factors:
n = number of players in tournamentk = place of finish (k = 1 for 1st place, k = 2 for 2nd place, etc.)p = integer (n * 0.34)
‘p’ determines who receives points. ‘p’ is the number of places that finish in the top third of the tournament. If there are 6 entrants, then n=6, therefore p=n*0.34, making p=2 (integer of 2.04).
If n = 4, 2 points are awarded for 1stIf n = 5, 3 points are awarded for 1st
For n 5, points awarded are:
n * (sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)) / [sum (sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)) for k = 1 to k = p]
Each tournament with 6 or more players pays out the total number of points equal to the number of entrants (n). The numbers generated by the above equation tend not to equal ‘n’, in these cases the points are normalised accordingly, by keeping the same ratio but applying it to n, rather than n.
So if there are 6 entrants n=6, p=2. As p=2.04, only the top 2 finishers will receive points, meaning the equation will work like this:
For 1st, n=6, k=1, p=2.04:
6 * (sqrt(6)/sqrt(1)) / [(sqrt(6)/sqrt(1)) + (sqrt(6)/sqrt(2)) + (sqrt(6)/sqrt(6*0.34))]6 * (2.449/1) / [(2.449/1) + (2.449/1.414) + (2.449/2.04)]6 * 2.449 / (2.449 + 1.732 + 1.71)= 2.49
For 2nd, n=6, k=2, p=2.04:
6 * (sqrt(6)/sqrt(2)) / [(sqrt(6)/sqrt(1)) + (sqrt(6)/sqrt(2))]6 * (2.449/1.414) / [(2.449/1) + (2.449/1.414)]6 * 1.732 / (2.449 + 1.732 + 1.71)= 1.76
These results are then normalised so that 6 points are awarded in total (as each tournament awards ‘n’ points):
For 1st place:
6* (2.49 / (2.49 + 1.76)) = 3.51points
For 2nd place:
6* (1.76 / (2.49 + 1.76)) = 2.49 points
Another great trip with Intertops has come and gone! The Winter Poker Championships (CAPT) in Seefeld, Austria!!It’s a small ski village that’s filled with spectacular sites, all the winter activities you can think of and plenty of poker action! Great locations, great fun and poker action is what Intertops is all about and this was no exception! This trip had it all! Amazing views, wild aggressive players, TheTrooper97 ski crashes and, of course, schnitzel! It was yet another experience of lifetime!An 18 hour trip from Ft Worth to London to Dusseldorf to Salzburg then drive 21/2 hours to Seefeld! It’s a test to even experienced travelers, but well worth the journey once you see those snowcapped mountains. I can’t believe I got to travel back to where it all began! When I was here year last, I was beyond thrilled to experience what I thought was a one in a lifetime trip! I never expected that I would be able to return, never mind have it be my third time to Austria now! Beyond fortunate! For the people who haven’t been following from the beginning of this journey, I won a satellite on Intertops to play in this tourney last year! After quitting my job in November of 2015 to take a shot at playing professionally, I managed to win an event on the site that started this whole amazing adventure. Flying overseas for the first time, meeting the Intertops crew, playing my first $2k+ tourney, and eating A LOT of schnitzel! Here’s the start of it all if you want to catch up to speed! www.2Fit2fold.com/seefeld. Last year is also when I met fellow satty winner and Intertops player Chris Perkins. He and I were amazed and overwhelmed by the whole experience. We didn’t do as well as we had hoped in the tourney, but it was hard to be upset for too long in such a great place.One of the reasons we didn’t do as well as we wanted last year was due to the surprisingly aggressive play of the European players! I mean, I had never seen so much 4 betting EVER! lol It was a little bit confusing to us because this was also one of the best structures we had ever played, with 50k starting stacks and 1 hour levels! I had thought it would be an easy waiting game for good hands and good spots, I mean 50k starting, c’mon there’s so much play there! WRONG! lol What we didn’t take account for was the fact that these players are used to this structure and know how to take advantage of all the players with my same strategy. So many players pour on the aggression, knowing they can keep hammering tighter players and force folds. It’s a good plan, until you realize many of these guys also have that same idea AND play against each other fairly often. It makes for a crazy dynamic that I still have yet to see anywhere else! The closet thing might have been some of the WSOP Vegas events, but still not quite as aggressive. It proves to be a difficult adjustment to make and requires another level to your poker game! So this year, armed with that knowledge and more experience of playing against such aggro players, I was prepared to have some revenge. lol Unfortunately though, the European players had other ideas!! It was a tough table draw again for me this year, but at least I had position on the most aggressive players! Still even with the 3 most aggro players on my right, I was often hand-cuffed by the 3 and 4 betting before I even got to act! It was an interesting dynamic as I had a few calling stations on my left. I had thought I would be able to take advantage of them but that backfired as well, because strangely enough, every time I put in a raise or re-raise to combat the aggros on my right, the donkeys on my left would cold call!? lol Ever have one of those tourneys were you feel like everyone’s out to get you!? Well this for sure felt like one of those for me! I lost almost 15k in the first 30 minutes of the tournament! I had AA, KK x 2, AKo and AJo all lose on the river. With the majority of the chips going in the hand where I had KK for the second time in 20 minutes and had to fold the river to an all in shove after the 3rd flush card hit! It was brutal, as obliviously had that sick run of starting hands all had gone in my favor, I would have enough chips to coast to bagging up for day 2. Not only that but given how early it was, a good chance to bag up a significant stack for a real shot at going deep on day 2.It wasn’t in the cards for me again this year at Seefeld and history repeated itself when I played all of day one, just to bust out on the VERY LAST hand of the night!! Watching my KQs lose to AQ suited on a queen high flop! BOoooo! Oh well, what can you do right? I will put up some hand histories in the next post and maybe we can figure it out together! And of course winning would have been nice, but poker is always just PART of these trips with Intertops! There are worst places to bust tourneys for sure! Being out of the event meant I was able to head up to the top of the mountains the next day and enjoy everything else Seefeld had to offer! Not to mention we still had a day back in Salzburg waiting for us! Seeing Salzburg again is always a treat. The history of Old Salzburg is so impressive. Seeing a castle at the top of a small mountain from literally right outside your hotel window is pretty bad-ass. Not something you see every day huh? lol The birth place of Mozart and apparently Red Bull lol, you see those two things everywhere you go. Along with buildings built right into (or from?) the mountain, with dates on them showing just how old they are, it’s like stepping back in time. The oldest one I remember seeing was a church with the date 1409 on it?! How cool is that?! Being surrounded by all that really is quite the site to see and a pretty great way to put things in perspective (especially after busting a poker tourney lol).There’s plenty more to write about from this one, between hand histories, views from the top, weird Euro poker chips and TheTrooper97s brutal ski crash! So I’ll get to another blog to fill you all in, but if your too impatient for that (and really wanna see Trooper crash lol) check out all his videos of our trip here! Be sure to give him a like and a follow! And let us know what you would like to read and see more of in the future! Don’t forget to check us out on Twitch for give-aways and upcoming promotions from Intertops. Maybe you can win yourself a seat and come along for the next adventure!Til next timeRun GoodTim
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