The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.
pros of becoming a professional poker player
Being a professional poker player is a daring as well as exciting decision. If you’re successful at the game and want to quit your day job to become a poker pro, it’s an enticing opportunity. However, be warned: Poker rules are difficult to work, that isn’t for everyone. If you consider taking a risk to become a professional poker player, you should please ensure that it is an educated choice.
Here are some pros of becoming a professional poker player that might encourage you to take the next step!
Professionally Pursuing What You Love
One of the most prevalent desires in the world is to do something that you love professionally. For anyone in the poker community saying that there’s profit in this, they’re certainly not doing it only for the money. They love the game and have passion for it. For those who don’t have that, must understand that it is a skill game and requires practice to get better. This is what encourages them to put in the research time required to excel and achieve success through the downtrends.
Self Determination And Versatility
Poker players set their own schedules which is a great thing for any professional in any field of work or sport. To stave off poker exhaustion and keep you going, getting this independence will go a long time away. Also, you’ll only be accessible to yourself. Versatility is something that is quite limited in a number of professions nowadays and there’s nothing quite like poker tournaments when it comes to versatility. That’s not to suggest, of course, that it’ll be straightforward. The assumption is that when you do so, no-one will be blowing down your neck.
Earning Big Money
There is still a lot of profit to be gained by playing online poker if you can achieve a high level of experience. In terms of rake and playing rewards, there have been a few improvements in the market in recent years that have limited online poker’s profitability, but it is still possible to obtain a decent income playing the game. Getting in and getting out of micro stakes is one of the greatest obstacles facing emerging online pros these days. In present-day games, the high rake and low rakeback eat away at the winnings of a micro stakes player, making it difficult for them to achieve a good score overall.
On the other hand, live poker has been and is likely still a highly lucrative enterprise for professional players. The live player average is much lower than the online player estimate. This may be because, in casinos, live poker is practiced and thus encourages individuals who play poker to bargain instead of because they are successful at it. Or it could be because of live poker’s social aspect. It’s a mix of both, perhaps.
For more interesting articles about poker or poker news, keep reading PokerShots!
So like all poker player, I’ve been stuck re-living all the hands from the last time I played, both good and bad…ok mostly the bad.It’s a mental beating we all give ourselves, especially those of us that are extremely passionate about the game. It’s a blessing and curse! It’s a huge help in realizing the faults in our own games, and moving us towards getting better, but there in lies the problem, Admitting our faults! Who likes to do that, certainly not me lol It’s a tricky thing, using past mistake to improve, particularly in poker. There’s a clear advantage in using these previous blunders to keep improving your game, but if we aren’t careful, it can quickly become a huge disadvantage. The downside is that we poker players have a tendency to obsess over hands waayy too much, usually causing much more harm than good. I know I’m ridiculous about this myself, always my own harshest critic, completely destroying myself mentally after losing session or big bust outs in tourneys. I have to constantly remind myself that it’s just part of the game and it happens to the best of us. Whether its variance or just poor decisions, it’s all par for the course. Regardless of what anyone tells you, no one plays perfect all the time and nobody dodges the math forever lol. So we do our best to keep our sanity(and our bankrolls), by reviewing our mishaps, learning from them and moving “on to the next one”. That being said here’s a few quick recaps of some hands played in the last few months. I hope I they provide you with some entertainment and insight,but mostly I hope that they force me to make sure I listen to everything I just told you guys! lolThis is a nice punt I made in a smaller WSOPc event at The Bike in LA his past December. LOL I have a 32k stack and we are at 300/600 blinds with 100 ante. The under the gun, very active player opens to 1300. He gets 2 pretty loose active callers. I have Q9d in cutoff and decide to call as well.(meh lol) Small blind then raises to 6k! Oops. He’s pretty predicatable though and think I have a good read on his game. It folds back to me, I see $12600 in the pot and need to call 4700 for a shot at winning what’s already a $17300 pot!! I call. Q,10,7 rainbow flop. He instantly leads 10k. Just grabs and spIashes it in!? I just thought he looked weak and had about 26k left. So I ship, and he snaps me off with AQ. Oops again lol Not my proudest moment lolThis ones from the kickoff event, 200k GTD, of the WSOPc Choctaw. Ran pretty bad this whole weekend lol These hands happened back to back. In limped pot, 3 of us see a K,10,3 rainbow flop. I have k9 off in BB. I bet 500 into a 900 pot, wild older guy calls, other folds. I bet 1000 on 9h turn. He snap calls. I check a 10h river, and he snaps 3000 into the middle. I puke lol then Fold…next hand, the Blinds are 150/300 and I now have only 5400. I open from UTG to 800. The fun donkey, older guy on my left calls. Pretty nitty younger guy on his left calls too. Flop comes Qd,8d,5s. I try to hide my excitement cause I know the old guy can’t wait to bet! So I check, he doesn’t dissappoint and snaps a 1k chip out. Then to my surprise the younger guy thinks for a minute then makes it 3500?! Shit! Lol I think I’m probably toast but I think he’s capable of having the same read on this guy as I do. So I think he either can be making a move or doing this with a draw?! Plus I have a huge hand and not enough chips to fold anyway lol so I go all in, old guy folds, and of course the kid calls. Shows me KK and board runs out good for him. Cool story lol Ouch, REBUY! LolHere’s one from the WSOPc Choctaw 1 million GTD main event! We are at 300/600 with 100 ante and I have about 50k. The player in the LoJak bet 700 for the last 3 or 4 hands and was super active all day. He does it again and gets 1 caller. I call in SB with K10 off.(boooooo). The BB folds. The Flop is 7h,Qc,Jc. I had planned on check raising him if he bet, but it checks through. Turns comes Kc! Yikes! I check, and original raiser bets the pot!? About 3600. Other caller folds. I was pretty confused by his large bet size on such a scary card, but overall I thought it looked weak, so I call. Turn is Js! More yikes! Another scary card. I decide to check. He tanks for about a minute, then bets pot again! Just under 11k! This was the last hand before a break and I tanked a good 2-3 minutes into the break before I made a hero call. I was confused by his large bets on both streets and thought it looked so polarized on that crazy board. He shows QQ for a full house on the river. I still don’t understand his flop check or his hide turn bet when such a bad card peels off, but what can you do. LolHopefully I can learn from these tough lesson so soon! Intertops, along with TheTrooper79 and I, are heading back to Austria! It’s business as usual for Intertops, sending players to exotic locations for exciting tourney action! With player Douglas Klein coming for a poker trip of a life-time, after winning a satellite with us online worth $4000! Check out his whole story here at Live-Dream-Poker! For me it’s a chance to redeem myself from last years performance and take it to those Uber aggressive Europeans! lol As for The Trooper, he’ll be there to kept tabs on is and take you on all his crazy adventures, poker and travel wise. We leave in a few days, but be sure not to miss the Sunday action on Intertops still! Play in tomorrow’s all new schedule of action packed six max tourneys, as well as our 1k and 5k guarantees! Hope to see you there!RUN good!Tim
สล็อต คาสิโน ออนไลน์
คาสิโน ฟรีเครดิต 2020
เกม คาสิโน ปอยเปต…
Another great trip with Intertops has come and gone! The Winter Poker Championships (CAPT) in Seefeld, Austria!!It’s a small ski village that’s filled with spectacular sites, all the winter activities you can think of and plenty of poker action! Great locations, great fun and poker action is what Intertops is all about and this was no exception! This trip had it all! Amazing views, wild aggressive players, TheTrooper97 ski crashes and, of course, schnitzel! It was yet another experience of lifetime!An 18 hour trip from Ft Worth to London to Dusseldorf to Salzburg then drive 21/2 hours to Seefeld! It’s a test to even experienced travelers, but well worth the journey once you see those snowcapped mountains. I can’t believe I got to travel back to where it all began! When I was here year last, I was beyond thrilled to experience what I thought was a one in a lifetime trip! I never expected that I would be able to return, never mind have it be my third time to Austria now! Beyond fortunate! For the people who haven’t been following from the beginning of this journey, I won a satellite on Intertops to play in this tourney last year! After quitting my job in November of 2015 to take a shot at playing professionally, I managed to win an event on the site that started this whole amazing adventure. Flying overseas for the first time, meeting the Intertops crew, playing my first $2k+ tourney, and eating A LOT of schnitzel! Here’s the start of it all if you want to catch up to speed! www.2Fit2fold.com/seefeld. Last year is also when I met fellow satty winner and Intertops player Chris Perkins. He and I were amazed and overwhelmed by the whole experience. We didn’t do as well as we had hoped in the tourney, but it was hard to be upset for too long in such a great place.One of the reasons we didn’t do as well as we wanted last year was due to the surprisingly aggressive play of the European players! I mean, I had never seen so much 4 betting EVER! lol It was a little bit confusing to us because this was also one of the best structures we had ever played, with 50k starting stacks and 1 hour levels! I had thought it would be an easy waiting game for good hands and good spots, I mean 50k starting, c’mon there’s so much play there! WRONG! lol What we didn’t take account for was the fact that these players are used to this structure and know how to take advantage of all the players with my same strategy. So many players pour on the aggression, knowing they can keep hammering tighter players and force folds. It’s a good plan, until you realize many of these guys also have that same idea AND play against each other fairly often. It makes for a crazy dynamic that I still have yet to see anywhere else! The closet thing might have been some of the WSOP Vegas events, but still not quite as aggressive. It proves to be a difficult adjustment to make and requires another level to your poker game! So this year, armed with that knowledge and more experience of playing against such aggro players, I was prepared to have some revenge. lol Unfortunately though, the European players had other ideas!! It was a tough table draw again for me this year, but at least I had position on the most aggressive players! Still even with the 3 most aggro players on my right, I was often hand-cuffed by the 3 and 4 betting before I even got to act! It was an interesting dynamic as I had a few calling stations on my left. I had thought I would be able to take advantage of them but that backfired as well, because strangely enough, every time I put in a raise or re-raise to combat the aggros on my right, the donkeys on my left would cold call!? lol Ever have one of those tourneys were you feel like everyone’s out to get you!? Well this for sure felt like one of those for me! I lost almost 15k in the first 30 minutes of the tournament! I had AA, KK x 2, AKo and AJo all lose on the river. With the majority of the chips going in the hand where I had KK for the second time in 20 minutes and had to fold the river to an all in shove after the 3rd flush card hit! It was brutal, as obliviously had that sick run of starting hands all had gone in my favor, I would have enough chips to coast to bagging up for day 2. Not only that but given how early it was, a good chance to bag up a significant stack for a real shot at going deep on day 2.It wasn’t in the cards for me again this year at Seefeld and history repeated itself when I played all of day one, just to bust out on the VERY LAST hand of the night!! Watching my KQs lose to AQ suited on a queen high flop! BOoooo! Oh well, what can you do right? I will put up some hand histories in the next post and maybe we can figure it out together! And of course winning would have been nice, but poker is always just PART of these trips with Intertops! There are worst places to bust tourneys for sure! Being out of the event meant I was able to head up to the top of the mountains the next day and enjoy everything else Seefeld had to offer! Not to mention we still had a day back in Salzburg waiting for us! Seeing Salzburg again is always a treat. The history of Old Salzburg is so impressive. Seeing a castle at the top of a small mountain from literally right outside your hotel window is pretty bad-ass. Not something you see every day huh? lol The birth place of Mozart and apparently Red Bull lol, you see those two things everywhere you go. Along with buildings built right into (or from?) the mountain, with dates on them showing just how old they are, it’s like stepping back in time. The oldest one I remember seeing was a church with the date 1409 on it?! How cool is that?! Being surrounded by all that really is quite the site to see and a pretty great way to put things in perspective (especially after busting a poker tourney lol).There’s plenty more to write about from this one, between hand histories, views from the top, weird Euro poker chips and TheTrooper97s brutal ski crash! So I’ll get to another blog to fill you all in, but if your too impatient for that (and really wanna see Trooper crash lol) check out all his videos of our trip here! Be sure to give him a like and a follow! And let us know what you would like to read and see more of in the future! Don’t forget to check us out on Twitch for give-aways and upcoming promotions from Intertops. Maybe you can win yourself a seat and come along for the next adventure!Til next timeRun GoodTim
สล็อต คาสิโน ออนไลน์
คาสิโน ฟรีเครดิต 2020
เกม คาสิโน ปอยเปต…