Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?


The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.

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Learning from Phil Hellmuth Jr.

I was recently honored to host a live webinar with 13-time WSOP bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth Jr. While Phil is a bit of an enigma in the poker world because no one quite understands how he wins on a consistent basis in high stakes poker tournaments, I knew there were countless skills I could learn from him. When you have the opportunity to discuss poker strategy with one of the most successful poker players in the world, you listen!
Since the webinar, I have implemented numerous concepts we discussed, drastically increasing my profits at the table.
One of the most important concepts he discussed was the idea that if you have played poker for a long time and studied the game diligently, as I have, you should tend to trust your reads. Since our webinar, I have worked hard on my reading abilities and they seem to be paying off.
I recently played in a $13,000 high roller event in Barcelona. There was one player at the table who was obviously splashing around. Everyone was making a point to play pots with him. Even though he was clearly playing junky hands, he always had the nuts when his opponents decided to call his large postflop bets.
Eventually I raised with A-T from middle position, the splashy guy called in the small blind and the Big Blind also called. The flop came 4-4-3. The splashy guy made a bet and I decided to call. The turn was a J. He bet again and I called. The river was an 8 and he bet enough to put me all-in, which was around the size of the pot.
Seeing how he had only shown the nuts when he took overly aggressive lines in the past, this would normally be an easy fold. However, something did not feel right. I can’t quite quantify what it was, but he looked nervous. I thought he would play numerous busted draws in this manner. My main concern was that he could be bluffing with a hand such as 2-2 or A-Q, which would be a disaster for me.
However, I went with my read and called. He showed the 5-2 and I doubled up with my marginal A-high.
While this is certainly an extreme example, if I did not have the amazing learning experience with Phil, I would have folded. Instead, I won $13,000 in equity.
To get instant access to this enlightening learning experience with Phil Hellmuth Jr. where he discusses numerous other strategies he implements to constantly win poker tournaments, check out the webinar here: Learning from Phil Hellmuth Webinar

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In First Hint of WSOP 2021 Revival, WSOP Launches “Ultimate Poker Champion” Sweepstakes Promo

In what is thought to be the first sign that Caesars is planning for a live World Series of Poker festival in 2021, the operator has put on a new free-to-enter sweepstakes promotion, the Ultimate Poker Champion Experience.

Running from February 15 through April 30, 2021, the contest offers anyone in the United States a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be a part of the WSOP Main Event. One lucky person will not only get their entry into the Main Event paid in full, but they will also be treated to an elite experience during their stay. To enter, all you have to do is fill out the form.

With the coronavirus pandemic still causing mass disruption to live events and travel in the United States and around the world, the WSOP has yet to announce any schedule or plan for this year’s series. There is no information around the main event, for which the promotion is centered around.

The Normal Ramp Up to the WSOP

The WSOP is poker’s biggest event of the year. Tens of thousands of players descend on the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas for more than six weeks of poker. Action culminates in the $10,000 Main Event, the most prestigious tournament in the game. The winner is crowned the year’s champion, poker’s highest accolade.

However, last year, due to the coronavirus, the regular World Series of Poker 2020 was canceled for the first time in its 51-year history.

In its place was an online series held half in the United States—on the official WSOP Nevada and WSOP NJ online poker rooms—and half outside the US on global online poker room GGPoker.

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In the winter, WSOP and GGPoker joined forces again for a hybrid online-live Main Event where players competed in tournaments online, then met for a live final table. The two winners of these met in a special heads-up match in Las Vegas.

Normally by now, organization and marketing are in full flow. Online satellites are underway on official WSOP sites as well as partners internationally. Schedules are revealed, packages are offered and promotions are spread.

However, nothing has yet been revealed for this year—understandable, given how no one knows how the next few months will unfold. That makes this promotion even more intriguing.

Sweepstakes Package Details

The winner of the sweepstakes promotion will win entry into the $10,000 buy-in 2021 WSOP Main Event.

As noted, normally this is a multi-day tournament held live in the Rio; last year, it was mostly online. What it will be this year is unknown. The implication, however, is that Caesars wants to run this live in Las Vegas, given the other parts of the prize package.

The winner and their guest will be flown to Las Vegas from anywhere in the continental United States. Once in the city, they will be treated to a dinner for two at a Celebrity Chef restaurant, a three night stay in a suite at Caesars Palace, a whisky and cigar night at the hotel’s Montecristo Cigar Bar, and $1,000 in spending money.

The total prize package, including all the extra goodies, is worth $14,000.

Prize
Approximate Value (USD)

$10,000 Seat to 2021 WSOP Main Event
$10,000

3-night stay in a Suite at Caesars Palace
$1,000

Round-trip airfare for two (from continental US)
$1,100

$1,000 VISA Gift Card
$1,000

Whisky and cigars at Montecristo Cigar Bar
$400

Dinner for two at Celebrity Chef’s restaurant
$500

Hotel Stay at the Rio, a Hint of the WSOP Finally Moving?

Curiously, the stay is only for a three nights—which would normally not be long enough for a deep run of the WSOP Main Event. Last year, the tournament was spread over two weeks, with three Day 1s and two Day 2s then a Day 3, Day 4, and final table, with breaks gaps in-between.

Also of note, the hotel stay is in Caesars Palace, not the Rio. Whether this suggests an anticipated location move or not remains to be seen. The Rio was sold back in 2019 though Caesars agreed to manage the property for two years.

The 2020 event was scheduled to take place in the Rio, and the live Main event did go ahead in its convention center. However, no announcement has been made for the 2021 series—and with Caesars potentially coming to the end of its management contract, this could well be the first indication that WSOP plans to move it to another Caesars location in Las Vegas.

How to Enter the WSOP Ultimate Poker Champion Sweepstakes Promo

If you are a United States resident, just fill out this form. That’s it! You can read below for more details.

The contest is open to anyone over 21 years of age, with the exception of employees and family of Caesars Interactive Entertainment, Inc or Caesars Entertainment Services, LLC. The offer is only valid in the continental United States and void where prohibited.

Entries are open until midnight on April 30, 2021 and the winner will be randomly chosen on May 6, 2021 from all the entries received prior to the closing date.

In the event that the winner does not meet eligibility requirements, up to 5 alternate draws will be made to choose a winner. If no eligible winner is selected after the maximum 5 alternate draws, the prize will remain unawarded.

Prizes are non-transferable, and not subject to change except at the discretion of the contest Administrator. The Administrator reserves the right to substitute a prize of equal or greater value if the above prizes are not available for any reason, and winners are responsible for all taxes and fees which may be associated with receiving or using the prize. There is no cash equivalent for this prize.

The dates for the prize will be set once the Main Event is scheduled, but the trip must be taken before December 31, 2021. This gives the organizers a wide window to schedule the WSOP 2021 Main Event—whatever form it takes.

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Paulis Plausinaitis leads GGPoker WSOPC main event final table


The GGPoker World Series of Poker Circuit event is down to its last nine players and there are some superstars waiting to battle at the felt for the famed Circuit Ring and perhaps more importantly, the $1,236,361 top prize.With 6,395 entries, the $1,700 buy-in was stumped up by a huge number of players and that meant the $10 million guarantee was exceeded to an eventual total prizepool of $10,327,925.With 700 players paid, Day 2 started with 1,112 players, meaning the bubble had not yet burst, and play might have been expected to slow down a little. With the two final turbo Day 1 flights running into that Day 2, however, play carried on at a lick of pace, with an orbit at each of the remaining tables producing over 100 bust-outs.There were some big names who ran close to the money but missed out on profit, such as Christian Rudolph, Juan Pardo, Kenny Hallaert, David Yan, GGPoker ambassador Felipe Ramos and Fedor Holz, with the min-cash of $4,107 eluding them all.Others snuck into the money places, with players such as Brunno Botteon, Bertrand ‘ElkY’ Grospellier, Mohsin Charania, Jack Salter, Noah Boeken, Mark Radoja, Laurynas Levinskas and former WSOP Main Event winner Ryan Riess all cashing but failing to make the business end of the tournament. Inside the top 100 places, there were more hard luck stories for big names in the game, with the latest big GGPoker WSOPC winner Niklas Astedt busting, and he was joined on the rail by players such as Ronny Kaiser, Michael Addamo and Mike ‘SirWatts’ Watson to name just three.Later still, others such as Danny Tang, Simon Mattsson and Philippe D’Auteuil all departed, and it was around this time that a certain WSOP bracelet winner began to truly thrive. Joseph Cheong was nestling at the top of the leaderboard and starting to make his quality count.Back in 2010, this epic hand at the World Series of Poker saw Joseph Cheong’s aces lose to 7-5 after all the chips went into the middle on a 5-6-6 flop.Cheong managed to stay at the higher reaches of the leaderboard late in the day and will go into play in the final with 63 big blinds, holding 50.7 million chips. Only two players have more chips than Cheong, with the chip leader heading into the final being Macau-based Lithuanian Paulis Plausinaitis (76 million/95 big blinds) and second-placed Belarussian Artem Prostak (54 million/68 big blinds) also ahead of Cheong’s stack.Those three are not the only big players awaiting in what is sure to be a stacked final table when it takes place on Saturday 16th January. Finnish poker pro Joni Jouhkimainen with go into battle with only 13.8 million chips (17 big blinds) but will have nothing to lose by going on the attack. Romanian Alexandru Papazian has 25.1 million chips (31 big blinds) and will be an even bigger threat to the established players at the table in terms of chips.The action is sure to be superb when the final takes place, with kick-off time on the 16th January (this coming Saturday) being at 6.30pm UTC and broadcast on a live delay on the GGPoker Twitch channel.With blinds meaning the average stack is just over 44 big blinds, only four players have that, so you’ll want to tune in for kick-off as those below the line will need to make moves – and quick.GGPoker WSOPC Main Event Final Table Chipcounts:PositionPlayerCountryChipsBig Blinds1Paulis PlausinaitisLithuania76,004,22495 2Artem ProstakBelarus54,179,29168 3Joseph CheongUnited States50,700,58263 4‘likeboy’China47,269,12959 5Alexandru PapazianRomania25,140,09131 6‘turkey1’China21,939,16027 7‘BetAddict’Israel20,263,05825 8Joni JouhkimainenFinland13,814,88217 9‘DaiMing141319’China8,992,30511 

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Adjusting to world-class players

This is my table from a recent $25,000 buy-in event.
Poker tournaments are interesting, especially compared to cash games, because the skill level of your opponents can vary wildly. While there will be winners and losers in a $1/$2 cash game, most of the players simply do not play too well because if they did, they would be playing for higher stakes. In tournaments, especially in major events where many players satellite in, you could be playing with a total amateur who got lucky to win his seat for a small amount of money or a high stakes professional who travels the world and buys in directly to all of the premier events. In fact, when you are playing the “smaller” main events, such as typical $3,500 WPT or $1,500 WSOP events, those could be considered “small stakes” to some of the pros who play $10,000 buy-in and larger events on a regular basis.
This creates an interesting dynamic because you should employ a drastically different strategy when playing against the total amateur compared to the pro. Since most of what I discuss is based on blatantly exploiting my opponent, I thought it would be helpful to use this blog post to share my thoughts about how to play against someone you cannot blatantly exploit. I do not mean for this blog post to be a comprehensive guide for beating world-class players. I simply want to let you know a few of the adjustments I make while playing against world-class competition that you can quickly and easily integrate into your strategy, allowing you to be competitive.
Where does the profit come from?
I have recently been playing primarily $5,000 and larger buy-in events because I have been making a point to travel to the European Poker Tour stops. It simply does not make sense to spend a bunch of time and money for me to travel to a $3,500 buy-in event in America. Because of this, I have been playing in more high stakes tournaments where very few players satellite in, such as the typical high roller events in the EPTs. This has given me the opportunity to hone my skills against some of the best players in the world when there are not many weak players at the table.
I want to make it perfectly clear that when you are at the table with one or two world-class pros and a bunch of amateurs, you should generally make a point to play very few pots with the pros and lots of pots with the amateurs. You make money in poker by taking advantage of your opponents’ mistakes. If your opponents do not make many mistakes, you will not make much money. Since amateurs make many more mistakes than professionals, you want to play most of your pots with the amateurs. That being said, you should not play like a super nit versus the pros. Simply play a fundamentally sound strategy that makes it difficult for you to get exploited.
I made this 1,000,000 chip stack in a $5,000 buy-in event!
When you are playing at a table full of pros and only one or two amateurs, you simply must get involved with the other pros because if you don’t, you will eventually blind off. In general, there is nothing wrong with playing a relatively tight, aggressive style where you pick your bluff spots intelligently. I think one of the major mistakes amateurs make when playing against pros is that they rarely bluff. When they do, it is often so obvious that the pros can make somewhat easy calls with a wide range. If you only apply pressure when you have a premium hand, you will blind off because the pros will not give you action.
Changing gears
If you happen to be implementing a tight strategy and you have not played many hands in the recent past, do not be afraid to get a bit out of line, especially by reraising before the flop and then continuation betting the flop for about the same amount as your preflop reraise. While this play is quite simple, it is super-effective if you have a tight image. Always be aware of your image and use it to your advantage.
If you happen to be at a table where everyone is playing a tight, aggressive strategy, if you realize they are playing too tightly, especially when the stacks are around 30 – 50 big blinds deep, an effective play is to raise when the action folds to you, even from early position, with an overly wide range. If your opponents will only call or reraise with premium hands, you will find that you will often steal the blinds or win the pot after the flop frequently enough to justify a steal attempt. Of course, once your opponents realize you are raising with a wide range, assuming they become willing to play back at you, you should revert to a tight, aggressive strategy. Old school players refer to this as “changing gears”. I call it “playing intelligently”.
Stealing the blinds
Speaking of preflop stealing, you will notice that in high stakes tournaments the “standard” raise size is venturing higher. In the past, people folded from the big blind way too often so strong players started min-raising preflop in order to be able to steal the blinds with a wider range with less risk. This play was quite effective for a few years, but eventually the best players figured out that they should be defending their big blind with a wide range. If you can put in one more big blind before the flop and perhaps two more big blinds on the flop and see a showdown, which is often against the case against someone who raises with a wide range, continuation bets with a wide range, then plays straightforwardly on the turn and river, you should call the preflop min-raise with almost any two cards.
To counteract this adjustment by the best players, you have two options. You can either fire more turn and river bluffs, which gets quite risky, or you can raise larger before the flop. The problem with firing more turn and river bluffs is that your strong opponents will figure this out and start calling down with a wider range. It should be clear that very few good players check-raise the flop when they defend the blind because they want to keep their check-calling range strong so that you cannot happily fire three bluffs. While amateurs make the mistake of effectively turning their hand face-up by check-raising, pros will keep you guessing. Of course, if your opponent will call the flop with his marginal hands that he will fold by the river when faced with intense aggression, you should happily fire lots of bluffs. However, if your opponent may or may not call you down because they do not turn their hand face-up when they have premium hands, bluffing becomes much less palatable.
Instead, you can simply raise a bit larger before the flop. With deep stacks of 50 big blinds or more, it is quite common to see the best players raising to 3 big blinds before the flop. As the stacks start to shrink, their bet sizes start to decrease, but not too much. With 35 big blind stacks, they will still raise to around 2.7 big blinds or so.
I have been experimenting with raising to 2 big blinds when a weak player is in the big blind and 2.7 – 3 big blinds when a strong player is in the big blind. I have been making this play with my entire range so I am not easily exploitable. It has been quite effective so far because it allows me to play more pots with amateurs and fewer pots with the pros.
River betting
One other adjustment I want to discuss is how to bet on the river versus an amateur compared to a pro. Against an amateur, I will often bet an amount that I think will induce the result I want. For example, if I think my opponent is a mediocre player who will assume a small bet is for value, I will bet small as a bluff. If I think my opponent will always call a small bet with a wide range because of his pot odds, I will bet small with my value hands and large with my bluffs. This strategy does not work too well against pros because you will often not be able to out-think them.
Instead, you should choose bet sizes based on the percentage of the time that you will be bluffing versus value betting with your entire range. For example, if you know that in a specific river spot you will have 20% bluffs and 80% value bets (this assumes that your value hands win every time when you get called), you should make a bet that gives your opponent 4:1 pot odds, which would be 33% of the size of the pot, because that way, he cannot make a profit by either calling or folding. You will often see pros overbetting the pot, perhaps betting two times the size of the pot, giving their opponent 3:2, when they have around 40% bluffs in their range.
Of course, this assumes you know how to think about your actual range in a spot. Most amateurs are much too concerned with their own hand. Against pros, you must realize that you are playing your range against their range, not your hand against their hand.  Unfortunately, poker is not quite this simple because you rarely know if you are purely value betting or bluffing.  As long as you are at least thinking about ranges, you will be able to tailor your bet sizes to specific situations when playing against strong pros instead of simply betting some fixed percent of the pot every time.
That being said, if you do want to bet the same percent of the pot every time, the proper adjustment is to set up your range such that you have the correct proportion of bluffs compared to value bets. For example, if you always want to bet 64% of the size of the pot on the river, you should have 28% bluffs in your range. If you can figure out how to construct your range such that you have exactly 28% bluffs every time, this will work, but you will find that it is often easier to figure out what percentage of your range is bluffs and then adjust your bet size accordingly.
As a quick example, let’s suppose you find yourself on the river after you raised preflop from middle position and the Big Blind, a world-class pro, called. You then bet on both the flop and turn on an Ah-7h-5s-3s board and your opponent called. The river is the (Ah-7h-5s-3s)-Kd.
You certainly want to value bet with your best hands, so you must also figure out which hands to bluff with in order to remain balanced. Perhaps you know that your value betting range is all hands A-Q and better. Let’s also assume that you can’t have K-K because you probably would not have bet the turn with that. You also cannot have A-7o, A-5o, and A-3o because you would not have raised with those from middle position. This leaves you with a value range of this:

Notice that this is 68 combinations of hands. Let’s assume that you want to bluff with all of your busted flush draws. There are 14 combinations of busted flush draws that you could conceivably have. I am going to assume that you will bet with the busted K high flush draws that improved to middle pair as a bluff, which may or may not be a good play.

Since you have a total of 82 total combinations of hands (68 value hands and 14 bluffs) you should bet an amount that gives your opponent 68:14 pot odds, which would be 26% of the size of the pot. Of course, if you want to bet larger, you have to find more hands to bluff with. If you want to bet smaller, you should bluff with fewer of your missed flush draws (the ones with a pair of K’s in this example) or add in a wider range of value hands, assuming your opponent will call with worse made hands.
It is worth reiterating that real-world play is not this simple because you will occasionally value bet and get called by a better hand. You will also rarely know every aspect of your opponent’s strategy. The main takeaway should be that it is important to get out of the habit of blindly betting some percentage of the size of the pot on any betting round simply because that is what you think you are supposed to do. Always make a point to figure out why you make each of your actions.
While this strategy works well against the best pros, it is not a good idea against players who will simply never get to the river with a made hand worse than an A. While the best pros are thinking in terms of range versus range, the vast majority of players, most pros included, simply look at their hand and see if it is near the top of their range and then act accordingly. In the hand above, suppose you know that your opponent would almost always check-raise the flop with a flush draw, meaning that once he gets to the river, he has only top pair. If you know he will never fold his top pair to any reasonable bet, you should bet an amount that your opponent will call when you have a hand that is better than his calling range, which will most likely be around A-T or better. If instead you know that he will call up to a 60% pot bet but fold to larger bet sizes, bet 61% with your bluffs and 60% with your value hands. Of course, this again assumes we know a decent amount about our opponent, which enables us to play in an exploitative manner.
I hope this blog post has enlightened you a bit about how world-class pros play against each other. The deeper you think about poker, the better decisions you will make. To get started with this process, always make a point to think about your opponent’s range, your actual range, and what your opponent thinks about your range.
If you enjoyed this blog post, please share it with your friends! Also be sure to follow me at twitch.tv/jonathanlittle to watch me play live in real time for free. You can sign up for my PokerStars Home Game using #1976954 and Password: playpoker. My PokerStars Home Game will be on Tuesday, February 10, 2015 at 5pm EST. The Home Game is not for real money, but I will give away prizes. That way, everyone can play (even Americans!) I will stream the tournament on Twitch so everyone can watch. I hope you will join me on the live stream at twitch.tv/jonathanlittle. Thank you for reading.
 

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Sports gambling continues to be a huge success in Indiana


Hoosiers love their basketball. Ask anyone in Indiana and they’ll tell you that basketball isn’t just a sport; it’s a religion. The Indiana University Hoosiers’ basketball program has always been one of the best in the U.S. and the NCAA Hall of Champions is located in Indianapolis as a testament to the state’s attraction to basketball. On the NBA level, the Indiana Pacers have a massive following across the state, and all the attention given to hoops is paying off in a big way. Indiana continues to set new records with its sports gambling market, most of which is coming from basketball.In February of last year, the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) reported a handle of $187 million, a 10% increase from January. That wasn’t surprising, given the NFL Super Bowl action; however, assuming the money went to football would be wrong. The Big Game received $11.6 million in bets, while college and pro basketball accounted for over $90 million. Indiana continued to raise the bar on the sports gambling industry when the state’s sportsbooks recorded $251.4 million in November of last year, a $20-million increase over the prior month’s action. Much of that was destined for football as the NFL and college games were heating up, but, if there was any doubt of the importance of basketball in Indiana, the most recent numbers will push all of it aside. The IGC just released the latest figures on sports gambling and January was another record-setting month, the fifth consecutive month of breaking records. $348.2 million was wagered in the state last month, an increase of 11.2% over December and more than 100% over January 2020. Of that amount, $133.2 million went to hoops, making it the most money ever spent on one sport in the state. Football only got $77.6 million of the action. That’s not only good news for sportsbooks operating in the state, but it’s good news for the state’s budget, as well. With a tax of 9.5%, January gave Indiana’s government almost $2.8 million in tax revenue and, over the past 12 months, the state has received over $20 million. That’s not too bad for a local industry that has only been around since September 2019. Indiana can thank its neighbors for some of its additional wealth. Kentucky and Ohio don’t yet have sports gambling, although legislation is in the works, so gamblers in both of the states often hop over the border to place their bets. Illinois has a robust sports gambling market and is ranked fourth in terms of handle among legal states, but it doesn’t allow gambling on in-state college games. As a result, it loses some of the potential action it could be receiving and which might allow it to brag as being first or second in the sports gambling rankings. 

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My Weekly PokerStars Home Game

My Home game is currently on hold and games are not running. If there is enough demand, I will re-start the home game in the future.
*****Sign up info is no longer active*****
PokerStars Home Game:
Club ID: 1976954
Invitation Code: playpoker
Weekly Prizes:
These prizes are awarded each week to the top three finishers of my home game tournament.
This is important!!! If you win one of the prizes, you must email support@jonathanlittlepoker.com your full name, twitch name, pokerstars name, and email address to claim your prize.
1sT:
5 Reward Stars for my video training products
2nd:
3 Reward Stars for my video training products
3rd:
1 Reward Star for my video training products
Poker Coaching Account
In order to redeem your rewards, a PokerCoaching.com account is required.  If you do not have an account, sign up for a FREE Poker Coaching account using the link below.
Free Account
https://members.pokercoaching.com/start_trial.php
How to Redeem Your Rewards
Click the video below for instructions on how to redeem your rewards.

How to sign up:
You can NOT sign up through PokerStars New Jersey, only the global clients PokerStars.net and PokerStars.com.
To sign up for the PokerStars home game, simply download PokerStars and then navigate to the Home Game tab.

Click “Join a Poker Club”.

Then enter:
Club ID: 1976954
Invitation Code: playpoker

I then have to manually accept you, which may take me up to 24 hours. Once I have accepted you, be sure to log back into PokerStars and register for the tournament. You will see JonathanLittlePoker under your list of poker clubs.

Then click on JonathanLittlePoker, click on Schedule, then you will see the upcoming tournaments.

Simply register for the tournaments you want to play and you will be all set.

Log into PokerStars prior to the tournament and the table should automatically pop up once the tournament begins. I am looking forward to playing with you. Please please please share this post with your friends. I want this league to be a huge success so I can continue running it. Thank you and good luck!
This game was initially run as a league, with Kuno2001 claiming the title as well as the $1,500 grand prize. I will start the league back up again sometime after the WSOP, assuming there is enough interest.

HUGE congrats to Biszibosz for winning $1,000 plus lots of additional prizes in Season 2. Congrats to Qtunneler for taking 2nd for $500 plus lots of prizes.
I was honored to have a coaching session with the first and second place players from Season 1 of the league. Here I am giving them their coaching sessions live in Las Vegas!

***For those interested, here is how the PokerStars point structure works:
The exact formula for how Home Game statistics are calculated is based upon these factors:
n = number of players in tournamentk = place of finish (k = 1 for 1st place, k = 2 for 2nd place, etc.)p = integer (n * 0.34)
‘p’ determines who receives points. ‘p’ is the number of places that finish in the top third of the tournament. If there are 6 entrants, then n=6, therefore p=n*0.34, making p=2 (integer of 2.04).
If n = 4, 2 points are awarded for 1stIf n = 5, 3 points are awarded for 1st
For n 5, points awarded are:
n * (sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)) / [sum (sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)) for k = 1 to k = p]
Each tournament with 6 or more players pays out the total number of points equal to the number of entrants (n). The numbers generated by the above equation tend not to equal ‘n’, in these cases the points are normalised accordingly, by keeping the same ratio but applying it to n, rather than n.
So if there are 6 entrants n=6, p=2. As p=2.04, only the top 2 finishers will receive points, meaning the equation will work like this:
For 1st, n=6, k=1, p=2.04:
6 * (sqrt(6)/sqrt(1)) / [(sqrt(6)/sqrt(1)) + (sqrt(6)/sqrt(2)) + (sqrt(6)/sqrt(6*0.34))]6 * (2.449/1) / [(2.449/1) + (2.449/1.414) + (2.449/2.04)]6 * 2.449 / (2.449 + 1.732 + 1.71)= 2.49
For 2nd, n=6, k=2, p=2.04:
6 * (sqrt(6)/sqrt(2)) / [(sqrt(6)/sqrt(1)) + (sqrt(6)/sqrt(2))]6 * (2.449/1.414) / [(2.449/1) + (2.449/1.414)]6 * 1.732 / (2.449 + 1.732 + 1.71)= 1.76
These results are then normalised so that 6 points are awarded in total (as each tournament awards ‘n’ points):
For 1st place:
6* (2.49 / (2.49 + 1.76)) = 3.51points
For 2nd place:
6* (1.76 / (2.49 + 1.76)) = 2.49 points

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Nine Oklahoma Casinos Close To Conserve State’s Power Supply


Nine Oklahoma casinos are closing for a few days to help conserve power across the state as severe winter weather affects power grids in the state.
A massive ice and snow storm is affecting Texas and Oklahoma, two states that aren’t adept at handling it. It is causing most in the state to crank up their heating systems, which is putting a strain on the energy supply in both states.
The Cherokee Tribe announced earlier today that it will close all nine properties, including the Hard Rock Casino in Tulsa, at 5 p.m. and will stay closed until Wednesday at 1 p.m., according to a report from a local Fox affiliate. The reopening date could get pushed back if weather conditions don’t change.
The Southwest Power Pool, which provides energy to Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kansas, New Mexico, Louisiana, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming and Nebraska said that they were running low on energy supply Monday.
Poker pro Bart Hanson, who recently moved to Austin, tweeted a video Sunday that showed how bad the winter storm is. The video showed a car slowly sliding out of control down a neighborhood road and bumping into other cars along the way.
Some crazy shit going on here in Austin. I did not record this but from a few blocks over.. pic.twitter.com/ebbetkKYAZ— Bart Hanson (@BartHanson) February 15, 2021
 

 

 

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Seefeld Hands และ WSOP แจกของรางวัล!


ดังที่คุณทราบแล้วจากบล็อกโพสต์ล่าสุดปีที่แล้วใน Seefeld ฉันไม่ได้อยู่ในปีนี้อีกแล้ว เป็นอีกวันที่ยาวนานมีเพียงสัมภาระสั้น ๆ สำหรับวันที่สองเท่านั้นที่ล้มเหลว อย่างไรก็ตามฉันไม่พอใจกับเกมของฉัน แต่ฉันคิดว่าฉันโชคดีในช่วงแรก ๆ และฉันไม่สามารถเริ่มต้นการแข่งขันได้หลังจากนั้น ฉันมี Ace King ในชุดเอซแจ็คจากกระเป๋าเอซและพ็อกเก็ตคิงส์สองครั้งในเวลาไม่ถึง 40 นาทีหลังจากเริ่มต้นและฉันก็แพ้พวกเขาทั้งหมด! ฮ่า ๆ ยิ่งแย่ไปกว่านั้นเมื่อฉันรู้ว่าฉันอยู่ที่ไหนในมือของฉันจาก 3 ในนั้นเพียง แต่ต้องแพ้จากแผนที่แม่น้ำที่น่าอัศจรรย์สำหรับคู่ต่อสู้ มันค่อนข้างน่าเศร้าที่ต้องเจอกับสนามที่ยากขนาดนี้คุณต้องเล่นให้ดีที่สุดและวิ่งให้ดี! บางครั้งคุณสามารถทำอะไรได้ไม่มากนักในทัวร์นาเมนต์โป๊กเกอร์และอย่างที่ Doug Polk กล่าวว่า“ บางครั้งก็ถึงเวลาที่คุณจะตาย” ฮ่า ๆ ๆ ที่ถูกกล่าวว่าฉันคิดว่าฉันจะแบ่งปันมือกับคุณเพื่อรับข้อเสนอแนะเกี่ยวกับ ว่าฉันจะทำอะไรให้แตกต่างออกไปและอาจให้ข้อมูลเชิงลึกเพื่อช่วยฉันในอนาคต! ฉันเดาว่าฉันควรจะเริ่มจากตัวอย่างว่าแพ้ด้วยเอซฮ่า ๆ นี่อาจเป็นมือที่สิบถึงสิบห้าของฉันที่ฉันเคยเห็นมาแล้วและ 3 หนุ่มที่ก้าวร้าวทางขวาของฉันได้กำหนดเสียงการเดิมพันและการเดิมพัน 3 ครั้งในแต่ละมือ ฉันอยู่ในตาบอดขนาดใหญ่และมองลงไปที่เอซสีดำสองตัว! สุดยอดมาเริ่มกันเลยดีกว่า !! lol แว่นกันแดดที่สวมใส่โดยผู้เล่น 3 คนที่ดูผ่อนคลายจริงๆทางขวาของฉันเปิดที่ 400 ที่ 50/100 และรับปุ่มโทร เพิ่มเป็น 1300 และเฉพาะการโทรครั้งแรกเท่านั้น ฟลอปมี 8 ดอกจิก 9 เพชร 4 หัวใจและฉันตัดสินใจที่จะเข้าไปหาผู้ชายที่ดูเหมือนสถานีโทรศัพท์ดูเขาไล่อายเมื่อไม่กี่มือที่ผ่านมา ฉันเดิมพัน 1800 และเขาโทรหาโดยไม่ลังเลและเราเห็นสองสโมสรในทัวร์ ดูเหมือนอิฐสำหรับฉัน แต่บนฟลอปเขาโทรมาเร็วมากจนฉันไปอีกรอบประมาณ 2500 เขาคิดนาทีหนึ่งและมันก็ชัดเจนสำหรับฉันและอาจเป็นทั้งโต๊ะที่เขาดึงออกมาอย่างไม่เต็มใจ Jack of heart กระทบแม่น้ำและฉันก็อาเจียนออกมาเล็กน้อยในปากฮ่า ๆ ตั๋วที่น่ากลัวสำหรับฉันและฉันก็รู้ว่าฉันกำลังปิ้ง แต่ตัดสินใจที่จะเดิมพันประมาณ $ 3000 ฉันรู้สึกว่ามันเพียงพอแล้วที่จะดึงคุณค่าจากเขาและยอมให้ฉันเลิกรังเกียจถ้าเขาตัดสินใจที่จะเลี้ยงดูฉัน ที่แปลกใจคือเขาคิดไม่กี่วินาทีก่อนที่จะโทรมาโชว์ 10 7 ชุดให้ฉีกตรง!? Boo เขาไปที่นั่นที่แม่น้ำอย่างที่ฉันเดาไว้ แต่อย่างน้อยเขาก็กลัวที่จะมารับฉันและอาจจะเสียมากกว่านี้ มันยังให้ข้อมูลที่ชัดเจนเกี่ยวกับสไตล์การเล่นของเขากับฉันและคนอื่น ๆ ในโต๊ะ แต่ก็ยังหยาบอยู่ดีฮ่า ๆ ๆ ตอนนี้ฉันจะแสดงให้คุณเห็นวิธีการแพ้กับราชา! ฮ่าฮ่าคนร้ายคนนี้ก็เช่นกัน ฉันต้องเริ่มต้นด้วย 38k และเราอยู่บนผ้าม่าน 100/200 ด้วย 5) ante ภายใต้อาวุธผู้เล่นได้คะแนน 400 เด็กที่ก้าวร้าวมากเกินไปสองตัวทางขวาของฉันเพิ่มเป็น 1175 ฉันมี Ks Kc และ 3 ฉันเดิมพัน 3000 โฟลเดอร์พับเริ่มต้นและการเรียกเด็กเกษตรแบบไฮเปอร์ ฟล็อปมา Qc 8d 4h และตรวจสอบฉันฉันเดิมพัน 3500 และเขาโทรมาอย่างรวดเร็ว ถึงคราวของเจคลับ คิดสักครู่เขาเริ่มนับชิปและนับเงินเดิมพันจากนั้นตรวจสอบกับฉัน ตอนนี้ฉันไม่เพียง แต่เห็นเขาวิ่งตรงและชักโครกเท่านั้น แต่ยังเป็นผู้ชายคนเดียวกับที่ทำลายเอซของฉันบนแม่น้ำด้วยชุดออฟฟิต 10 7 ตัวหลังจากตีลูกตรงเปิด ซึ่งเขาเพิ่งเรียกเงินเดิมพันเล็กน้อยของฉันหลังจากที่เขาโดน!? WTF? ฮ่า ๆ ดังนั้นฉันรู้สึกมั่นใจจริงๆว่าเขาอยู่ในการจับฉลากอีกครั้งและหลังจากที่เขานับชิปและตรวจสอบฉันในเทิร์นนั้นฉันคิดว่าเขาอาจมี Ac 10c และหันเงินทุนมากจนเขาคิดว่าเขาพนันกับฉัน ฉันคิดว่าเป็นเพราะอย่างนั้นและเงินกองกลางได้เพิ่มขึ้นเท่าไรแล้วมันอาจจะดีกว่าถ้าจะตรวจสอบผลตอบแทน แต่ผู้เล่นหลายคนทำให้ทั้งหมดนี้ “แสดง” โดยแสร้งทำเป็นเดิมพันเพื่อรับตั๋วฟรีดังนั้นฉันจึงตัดสินใจเดิมพัน 9000 ใน ~ 13K หม้อ ฉันคิดว่ามันจะใหญ่พอที่จะดึงเขาออกจากการจับฉลากและเขาจะได้รับมูลค่าสูงสุดด้วยหากเขาตัดสินใจที่จะเรียกด้วยการจับฉลากหรือมือใหญ่ Qx เขาคิดแล้วก็ตรวจสอบให้แน่ใจว่าเขาจะมารับฉันไหม แต่เขาก็โทรมา ตอนนี้ฉันเหลือเงินประมาณ 25K เมื่อเขาเรียกทัวร์และมันเกือบ 30k ในเงินกองกลาง สามดอกจิกตีแม่น้ำแล้วเด็กก็ยิงฉัน!? ฉันไม่รู้จะทำยังไงกับมันสักวินาทีเพราะมันเกิดขึ้นเร็วมาก! พวกเขายังมีกระเบื้อง “ALL IN” อยู่ที่นั่นและพนักงานขายก็ขว้างมันมาที่เขาอย่างรวดเร็วจนฉันไม่พอใจเล็กน้อย! ฮ่า ๆ ๆ ฉันเติมน้ำมันเป็นเวลา 3 นาทีโชคดีที่มันเป็นระดับรายชั่วโมง! มันดูโง่มากที่แตกตรงนั้นและฉันก็คิดไม่ออกว่าทำไมเขาถึงไม่ลองลงทุนสักหน่อยถ้ามีแฟลช นอกจากนี้ฉันรู้สึกว่าสโมสร AK เป็นสโมสรที่เป็นไปได้ที่ยอดเยี่ยมในสถานที่นั้นด้วยการเดิมพัน preflop 3 และสำหรับฉันแล้วดูเหมือนว่าขนาดใหญ่ของการเดิมพันในเทิร์นนั้นสอดคล้องกับการจับสลาก / ความพยายามที่จะให้มากขึ้น ขึ้น. ในที่สุดฉันก็เปิดตัวและเขาก็บอกฉันทันทีว่า“ พับได้ดี” ซึ่งแน่นอนว่าทำให้ฉันคิดว่ามันไม่ได้ฮ่า ๆ แต่ด้วยระดับที่ยาวนานและการลงมือทำโดยรวมฉันคิดว่าฉันสามารถยอมแพ้และรอสถานที่ที่ดีกว่าได้ ที่เหลือฉันทำผิดพลาดฮ่า ๆ การแข่งขันที่เหลือดูเหมือนจะทำให้รอยพับเบลอเพราะฉันไม่พบมือหรือสถานที่ที่จะทำให้ฉันกลับมาในเกมได้ นี่เป็นตัวอย่างที่ดีในการเริ่มต้นฮ่า ๆ ฉันเริ่มต้นด้วยประมาณ 20.5k ที่ 500/1000 โดยมี 100 แอนต์ ฉันเห็นจอบของ Ace King ในสภาพถูกตัดขาดและเขาก็พับทับฉัน? ฮ่า ๆ cmon !! ฉันทำเงิน 2200 ด้วยความหวังที่จะเพิ่มหรือผลักดันจากใครบางคนที่อยู่ข้างหลังฉัน แต่มีเพียงคนตาบอดที่โทรมา Ace King 6 ปัด! โพดำทั้งหมด! ยัตซี่ !! เขาตรวจสอบและฉันเช็คอินจากด้านหลังขอร้องให้เขาแต่งหน้าเล็กน้อย เทิร์นเป็นเอซของคลับ คู่ Yahtzee! เขาเดิมพันที่ 2800 และฉันก็แค่โทรหาไม่รู้จะทำยังไงกับตัวเองฮ่า ๆ ๆ ๆ แม่น้ำมาพร้อมกับห้ายอด เขาตรวจสอบฉันเดิมพัน 3000 และ Snap ยอมแพ้ BOOOOOO! มันไม่ใช่ทัวร์นาเมนต์ของฉัน! เมื่อฉันเขียนข้อความนี้เสร็จฉันก็ทบทวนกำหนดการของ WSOPc Hardrock Tulsa และอดตื่นเต้นไม่ได้! นี่เป็นครั้งแรกที่ WSOP มีซีรีส์ออกมาและคุณรู้ว่าพวกเขากำลังจะออกมาทั้งหมด! ฉันคิดว่าฉันกำลังเล่นอีเวนต์เพียงไม่กี่งานโดยเน้นความสนใจส่วนใหญ่ไปที่งานเริ่มต้นที่ $ 250,000 สำหรับสุดสัปดาห์ที่ 17 (วันเซนต์แพดดี้ฉันเป็นชาวไอริชนั่นต้องหมายถึงอะไรบางอย่างฮ่า ๆ ๆ ) และงานหลักในสุดสัปดาห์หน้า . ฉันจะเดินตามรอยมืออาชีพชื่อดังอย่าง Doug Polk และให้ของขวัญเป็นส่วนหนึ่งของการกระทำของพวกเขาในแต่ละงานเหล่านี้! ตอนนี้ฉันรู้แล้วว่าฉันเป็นมันฝรั่งตัวเล็ก ๆ (เข้าใจมั้ย!? ฮ่าฮ่าฮ่า) เมื่อเทียบกับผู้เล่นอย่างเขา แต่ฉันอยากทำให้บล็อกนี้และการผจญภัยของฉันกับอินเตอร์ท็อปมีการโต้ตอบมากขึ้น และนอกจากนี้ใครไม่ชอบเงินฟรี!? สิ่งที่คุณต้องทำโดยพื้นฐานคือคลิกที่ปุ่มมัน! lol สำหรับกิจกรรมแรกใน Tulsa นี้ฉันจะให้รางวัล 5% สำหรับผู้เล่นที่ชอบโพสต์ที่เชื่อมโยงบล็อกนี้บน Facebook และบน Instagram! แค่นั้นแหละ! เพียงเพิ่ม 2fit2fold ลงใน Instagram แล้วกดปุ่มรูปหัวใจเล็ก ๆ นั้นเพิ่มฉันใน facebook และกดไลค์! เรียบง่าย! ฉันจะฉายเดี่ยวเมื่อจบงาน! ฉันจะทำอะไรที่คล้ายกันสำหรับกิจกรรมหลักโปรดอดใจรอ ฉันหวังว่าเราจะได้เห็นมันทั้งหมด! บางทีผู้เล่น Intertops อาจไม่สามารถแบ่งปันโชคของ IRAC และชนะรางวัลใหญ่ได้! ติดตาม @ 2fit2fold เครือข่ายโซเชียลทั้งหมดและอินเตอร์ท็อปโป๊กเกอร์ GoodTim ด้วย

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